{ "ticker": { "uuid": "716a76dd-9bb1-4245-9c2c-394523cdb483", "symbol": "AETH", "name": "21Shares Ethereum Staking ETP", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -33.292, "architecture_energy": 24.495, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 67.028, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.99, "rotation_up": 31.11, "upward_expansion": 20.27, "deceleration": 46.95, "rotation_down": 20.12, "downward_expansion": 54.27 }, "activity_lines": [ 17.943054, 17.359, 18.002899, 18.61728 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 18.2845, "trend_reference": 19.836777, "distance_from_trend": -0.078252, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 26.92203, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.320835, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -35.211957, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.035078, "excess_performance": -0.088389, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.078252, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.168769, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.320835, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.1112, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.35212, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.081029, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.035078, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.61934, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2812, "relative_activity": 0.730039, "balance": 0.61934, "dry_up": 0.908265, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.071179, "annualized_volatility": 0.459935, "from_high_reference": -0.593487, "from_low_reference": 0.220888 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 19.836777, "fair_value_reference": 26.92203, "structural_low": 14.9764, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.01406, "positive_rate": 0.526316, "directional_follow_through": 0.473684, "median_excess_return": 0.021394, "regime_survival": 0.789474, "best_return": 0.421157, "worst_return": -0.35963, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.191883, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.122265, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.540733, "worst_return": -0.288307, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.406871, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.326678, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 1.326375, "worst_return": -0.415417, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"activity_lines": [ 16.926754, 16.892202, 18.283163, 19.106242 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 18.057301, "volume": 3270, "typical_volume": 4631.55, "trend": 20.59156, "fair_value": 26.928471, "relative_strength": -35.384009, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.179922, "energy": 33.392546, "activity_lines": [ 17.402734, 16.999873, 18.181454, 18.922585 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 17.7885, "volume": 3325, "typical_volume": 4501.7, "trend": 20.21366, "fair_value": 26.924074, "relative_strength": -36.478572, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.493352, "energy": 25.555908, "activity_lines": [ 17.6743, 17.112604, 18.062258, 18.741742 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 18.2845, "volume": 2812, "typical_volume": 3851.85, "trend": 19.836777, "fair_value": 26.92203, "relative_strength": -35.211957, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.291824, "energy": 24.494744, "activity_lines": [ 17.943054, 17.359, 18.002899, 18.61728 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }