{ "ticker": { "uuid": "716cf01f-8bed-446f-8b31-7f1f37049c3d", "symbol": "SP5A", "name": "State Street SPDR S&P 500 UCITS ETF USD Acc", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 83.044, "architecture_energy": 65.833, "architecture_maturity": 88.077, "architecture_confidence": 64.797, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.02, "rotation_up": 52.93, "upward_expansion": 82.55, "deceleration": 71.33, "rotation_down": 29.01, "downward_expansion": 11.55 }, "activity_lines": [ 16.27, 16.207273, 15.976409, 15.61452 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 16.598, "trend_reference": 15.1862, "distance_from_trend": 0.092966, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 13.164882, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.260778, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.175466, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.156011, "excess_performance": -0.014881, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.092966, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.04114, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.260778, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.057887, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.031755, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.008318, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.156011, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.780149, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 529180, "relative_activity": 1.31632, "balance": 2.780149, "dry_up": 1.112399, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.018649, "annualized_volatility": 0.116706, "from_high_reference": -0.004797, "from_low_reference": 0.244974 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.1862, "fair_value_reference": 13.164882, "structural_low": 13.676, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.000977, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.001033, "regime_survival": 0.9, "best_return": 0.063519, "worst_return": -0.027677, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.059674, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.01683, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.074304, "worst_return": -0.000276, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.074008, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.012866, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.074008, "worst_return": 0.074008, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"direction": 60.64407, "energy": 58.10028, "activity_lines": [ 16.126267, 16.115454, 15.8684, 15.519372 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 16.598, "volume": 529180, "typical_volume": 402014.65, "trend": 15.1862, "fair_value": 13.164882, "relative_strength": -3.175466, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 83.044023, "energy": 65.832905, "activity_lines": [ 16.27, 16.207273, 15.976409, 15.61452 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }