{ "ticker": { "uuid": "71704f27-0983-4557-b9e9-2c6a7b0e81a6", "symbol": "0051", "name": "Yuanta/P-shares Taiwan Mid-Cap 100 ETF", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 33.767, "architecture_energy": 23.699, "architecture_maturity": 69.236, "architecture_confidence": 81.658, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 43.17, "rotation_up": 22.97, "upward_expansion": 56.27, "deceleration": 91.16, "rotation_down": 30.73, "downward_expansion": 19.93 }, "activity_lines": [ 137.573332, 140.077272, 138.029285, 132.282903 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 139.699997, "trend_reference": 123.853333, "distance_from_trend": 0.127947, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 83.622831, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.670596, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -1.692086, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.309278, "excess_performance": -0.070033, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.127947, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.162244, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.670596, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.04234, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.016921, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.003242, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.309278, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.102343, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 285890, "relative_activity": 0.881012, "balance": 1.102343, "dry_up": 1.217166, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.061698, "annualized_volatility": 0.280291, "from_high_reference": -0.078496, "from_low_reference": 0.862761 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 123.853333, "fair_value_reference": 83.622831, "structural_low": 100.349998, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.016456, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.012981, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.070324, "worst_return": -0.035817, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.060684, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.035163, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.087703, "worst_return": -0.099099, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.121626, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.037508, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.384175, "worst_return": 0.044257, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.795001, "energy": 65.206522, "activity_lines": [ 145.443334, 143.355454, 135.274999, 127.956021 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 135.600006, "volume": 520491, "typical_volume": 346529.2, "trend": 119.236666, "fair_value": 82.248033, "relative_strength": -1.224069, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.019655, "energy": 51.357588, "activity_lines": [ 142.376669, 142.44091, 136.032143, 129.106236 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 137.949997, "volume": 317174, "typical_volume": 329747.75, "trend": 120.849999, "fair_value": 82.718064, "relative_strength": -1.759477, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.10925, "energy": 41.457207, "activity_lines": [ 140.403335, 141.881818, 136.909047, 130.313548 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 133.949997, "volume": 456335, "typical_volume": 331991.2, "trend": 122.274999, "fair_value": 83.155787, "relative_strength": -3.363377, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.128907, "energy": 24.213998, "activity_lines": [ 137.746666, 140.434545, 137.255714, 131.158709 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 139.699997, "volume": 285890, "typical_volume": 324501.75, "trend": 123.853333, "fair_value": 83.622831, "relative_strength": -1.692086, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 33.766921, "energy": 23.699201, "activity_lines": [ 137.573332, 140.077272, 138.029285, 132.282903 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }