{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7171ada0-a254-4f7f-8935-91728c049711", "symbol": "CPB", "name": "Campbell\u2019s Co", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 61.419, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 0.452, "architecture_energy": 5.618, "architecture_maturity": 17.831, "architecture_confidence": 69.225, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 63.89, "rotation_up": 25.09, "upward_expansion": 32.03, "deceleration": 41.62, "rotation_down": 22.22, "downward_expansion": 40.37 }, "activity_lines": [ 22.328, 22.266251, 21.734513, 21.964327 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 23.05, "trend_reference": 22.848716, "distance_from_trend": 0.008809, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 34.202129, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.326065, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -22.593623, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.186319, "excess_performance": -0.373772, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.008809, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.084424, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.326065, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.102455, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.225936, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.172293, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.186319, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.85428, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 23869281, "relative_activity": 0.5902, "balance": 1.85428, "dry_up": 0.683088, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.075171, "annualized_volatility": 0.384333, "from_high_reference": -0.294865, "from_low_reference": 0.198439 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 22.848716, "fair_value_reference": 34.202129, "structural_low": 19.233345, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.023671, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.015209, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.088621, "worst_return": -0.114929, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.018576, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.091773, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.070116, "worst_return": -0.176497, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.083843, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.237781, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.173674, "worst_return": -0.328863, "sufficient": false }, { 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"balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-12-15", "end": "2023-12-29", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.014813, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-01-05", "end": "2024-02-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.04953, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-02-23", "end": "2024-04-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.065641, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-05-03", "end": "2024-10-04", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.072031, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.089854, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "Developing", 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44147362.25, "trend": 23.107779, "fair_value": 34.421673, "relative_strength": -24.142099, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -10.557211, "energy": 12.632343, "activity_lines": [ 22.181741, 22.009885, 21.501313, 22.03038 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 21.98, "volume": 29419261, "typical_volume": 41917791.4, "trend": 22.946044, "fair_value": 34.305338, "relative_strength": -23.227837, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -12.245492, "energy": 7.095397, "activity_lines": [ 22.064, 22.0566, 21.568503, 21.95762 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 23.05, "volume": 23869281, "typical_volume": 40442695.95, "trend": 22.848716, "fair_value": 34.202129, "relative_strength": -22.593623, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 0.451714, "energy": 5.618103, "activity_lines": [ 22.328, 22.266251, 21.734513, 21.964327 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }