{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7175d59e-98c0-428c-99be-ec610b57b0b8", "symbol": "SETM", "name": "SPROTT CRITICAL MATERIALS ETF", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 71.121, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -60.105, "architecture_energy": 47.859, "architecture_maturity": 8.975, "architecture_confidence": 85.912, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.67, "rotation_up": 15.53, "upward_expansion": 7.29, "deceleration": 45.72, "rotation_down": 63.4, "downward_expansion": 82.96 }, "activity_lines": [ 30.074333, 30.524727, 32.350875, 33.059911 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 32.7, "trend_reference": 33.963067, "distance_from_trend": -0.037189, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 21.021239, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.55557, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -5.761557, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.049419, "excess_performance": -0.236872, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.037189, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.033112, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.55557, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.369262, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.057616, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.254785, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.049419, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.50664, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 732754, "relative_activity": 0.648238, "balance": 0.50664, "dry_up": 0.65506, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.096852, "annualized_volatility": 0.489779, "from_high_reference": -0.193588, "from_low_reference": 0.675286 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 33.963067, "fair_value_reference": 21.021239, "structural_low": 27.405, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.024856, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": 0.007249, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.125935, "worst_return": -0.055949, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.107855, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.03608, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.300558, "worst_return": -0.06762, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.217203, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.11944, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.512449, "worst_return": -0.078043, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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-42.106309, "energy": 55.153654, "activity_lines": [ 31.505333, 32.754727, 33.936055, 34.203434 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 28.35, "volume": 993174, "typical_volume": 1264088.8, "trend": 34.0659, "fair_value": 20.770888, "relative_strength": -14.210963, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.497483, "energy": 76.64916, "activity_lines": [ 30.219333, 31.751273, 33.36695, 33.834924 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 28.875, "volume": 575763, "typical_volume": 1218654.1, "trend": 34.024067, "fair_value": 20.845762, "relative_strength": -11.43066, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.020301, "energy": 74.125325, "activity_lines": [ 29.501, 31.018364, 32.896798, 33.500027 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 28.47, "volume": 660171, "typical_volume": 1178771.6, "trend": 33.967733, "fair_value": 20.919279, "relative_strength": -13.434328, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.453739, "energy": 73.299262, "activity_lines": [ 28.998667, 30.327364, 32.411456, 33.1417 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 32.7, "volume": 732754, "typical_volume": 1130377.45, "trend": 33.963067, "fair_value": 21.021239, "relative_strength": -5.761557, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.104508, "energy": 47.859493, "activity_lines": [ 30.074333, 30.524727, 32.350875, 33.059911 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }