{ "ticker": { "uuid": "717bdacb-b6e5-47e5-b78f-a61ba5222780", "symbol": "QRI", "name": "Qualitas Real Estate Income Fund", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 29.748, "architecture_energy": 29.041, "architecture_maturity": 10.851, "architecture_confidence": 52.886, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.54, "rotation_up": 58.11, "upward_expansion": 52.61, "deceleration": 28.1, "rotation_down": 19.83, "downward_expansion": 10.94 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.547819, 1.540299, 1.539485, 1.538493 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 1.555, "trend_reference": 1.538638, "distance_from_trend": 0.010634, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1.448025, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.073876, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -3.870428, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.003549, "excess_performance": -0.067254, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.010634, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.001331, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.073876, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.030073, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.038704, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.060899, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.003549, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.145905, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4680216, "relative_activity": 1.524138, "balance": 1.145905, "dry_up": 1.221114, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.018075, "annualized_volatility": 0.080111, "from_high_reference": -0.02893, "from_low_reference": 0.057027 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.538638, "fair_value_reference": 1.448025, "structural_low": 1.471107, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": -0.001264, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": -0.003137, "regime_survival": 0.772727, "best_return": 0.041587, "worst_return": -0.057693, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.00102, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.004277, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.095989, "worst_return": -0.02552, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.011169, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.001052, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.087311, "worst_return": -0.044427, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.043797, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.019124, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.215859, "worst_return": -0.056564, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-11-17", "end": "2024-05-31", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.04764, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-06-07", "end": "2024-06-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.006135, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-06-28", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.065431, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.006847, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.016112, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.000958, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.005473, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.025145, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.009464, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.03229, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.032145, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-12", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.013245, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.019121, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.010224, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 1.22322, "volume": 2066126, "typical_volume": 2082503.85, "trend": 1.153977, "fair_value": 1.094823, "relative_strength": 8.937556, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", 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"direction": -12.644224, "energy": 8.564961, "activity_lines": [ 1.529797, 1.530822, 1.534655, 1.535497 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.55416, "volume": 3710682, "typical_volume": 3376630.3, "trend": 1.536445, "fair_value": 1.441628, "relative_strength": 1.017333, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 13.097246, "energy": 11.444226, "activity_lines": [ 1.540236, 1.53378, 1.536554, 1.536739 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.539263, "volume": 3032794, "typical_volume": 3284885.7, "trend": 1.537315, "fair_value": 1.443765, "relative_strength": 0.347781, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 6.379452, "energy": 13.540409, "activity_lines": [ 1.542039, 1.534214, 1.536926, 1.536921 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.544229, "volume": 3575149, "typical_volume": 3190918.15, "trend": 1.537546, "fair_value": 1.445873, "relative_strength": -1.569304, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 9.654713, "energy": 14.083084, "activity_lines": [ 1.544142, 1.536095, 1.53768, 1.537367 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.555, "volume": 4680216, "typical_volume": 3070730.0, "trend": 1.538638, "fair_value": 1.448025, "relative_strength": -3.870428, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 29.747713, "energy": 29.04083, "activity_lines": [ 1.547819, 1.540299, 1.539485, 1.538493 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }