{ "ticker": { "uuid": "717c9059-c737-42a9-9ee2-c347f0cab2b6", "symbol": "FEDF", "name": "Amundi US Fed Funds Rate UCITS ETF Acc", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 56.172, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 52.776, "architecture_energy": 48.984, "architecture_maturity": 68.688, "architecture_confidence": 49.973, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.26, "rotation_up": 49.19, "upward_expansion": 72.06, "deceleration": 62.46, "rotation_down": 26.25, "downward_expansion": 19.73 }, "activity_lines": [ 109.884668, 109.91691, 109.115381, 108.520688 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 109.290001, "trend_reference": 107.655, "distance_from_trend": 0.015187, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 106.927485, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.022095, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -12.556819, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.040362, "excess_performance": -0.13053, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.015187, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.012141, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.022095, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.020498, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.125568, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.006417, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.040362, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.448016, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 14682, "relative_activity": 2.134399, "balance": 0.448016, "dry_up": 1.203634, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.007552, "annualized_volatility": 0.05791, "from_high_reference": -0.109854, "from_low_reference": 0.060039 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 107.655, "fair_value_reference": 106.927485, "structural_low": 104.099998, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 34, "median_return": 0.000939, "positive_rate": 0.529412, "directional_follow_through": 0.529412, "median_excess_return": -0.02262, "regime_survival": 0.735294, "best_return": 0.031152, "worst_return": -0.128017, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.014565, "positive_rate": 0.692308, "directional_follow_through": 0.692308, "median_excess_return": -0.060317, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 0.069537, "worst_return": -0.142107, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.00644, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.168157, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.115744, 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106.665754, "relative_strength": -11.361155, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 74.657351, "energy": 89.989049, "activity_lines": [ 110.002, 109.327636, 108.426857, 107.828108 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 110.169998, "volume": 7621, "typical_volume": 7169.15, "trend": 107.215667, "fair_value": 106.738703, "relative_strength": -9.787751, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.911637, "energy": 87.761723, "activity_lines": [ 110.145333, 109.593454, 108.643048, 108.028925 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 110.790001, "volume": 2943, "typical_volume": 6792.95, "trend": 107.412667, "fair_value": 106.806459, "relative_strength": -8.838978, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 80.974189, "energy": 90.01089, "activity_lines": [ 110.381333, 109.902727, 108.895429, 108.259527 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 109.730003, "volume": 7872, "typical_volume": 6608.35, "trend": 107.559333, "fair_value": 106.869215, "relative_strength": -9.959042, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.937964, "energy": 62.177904, "activity_lines": [ 110.186668, 109.964909, 109.028476, 108.409032 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 109.290001, "volume": 14682, "typical_volume": 6878.75, "trend": 107.655, "fair_value": 106.927485, "relative_strength": -12.556819, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.775601, "energy": 48.983933, "activity_lines": [ 109.884668, 109.91691, 109.115381, 108.520688 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }