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Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 67.682, "architecture_energy": 86.81, "architecture_maturity": 45.38, "architecture_confidence": 87.305, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 3.51, "rotation_up": 79.56, "upward_expansion": 97.38, "deceleration": 41.94, "rotation_down": 8.97, "downward_expansion": 21.71 }, "activity_lines": [ 306.236, 292.012364, 273.850259, 260.399933 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 298.2, "trend_reference": 240.047816, "distance_from_trend": 0.242253, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 174.74754, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.706462, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 24.318521, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.48204, "excess_performance": 0.356415, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.242253, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.161171, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.706462, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.194302, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.243185, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.084589, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.48204, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.138112, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 11668345, "relative_activity": 1.049557, "balance": 2.138112, "dry_up": 0.955272, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.065939, "annualized_volatility": 0.372266, "from_high_reference": -0.08785, "from_low_reference": 0.924381 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 240.047816, "fair_value_reference": 174.74754, "structural_low": 189.586222, 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230.835447, "fair_value": 172.540723, "relative_strength": 37.423579, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 82.181124, "energy": 91.265733, "activity_lines": [ 295.638667, 279.484, 263.817369, 250.857597 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 316.47, "volume": 9464012, "typical_volume": 11449853.5, "trend": 235.928343, "fair_value": 173.738236, "relative_strength": 37.723295, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 81.706479, "energy": 92.580302, "activity_lines": [ 306.062667, 287.971091, 269.920867, 256.382406 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 298.2, "volume": 11668345, "typical_volume": 11117401.0, "trend": 240.047816, "fair_value": 174.74754, "relative_strength": 24.318521, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.682301, "energy": 86.809905, "activity_lines": [ 306.236, 292.012364, 273.850259, 260.399933 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }