{ "ticker": { "uuid": "718524ed-66e4-4924-b3f2-721b0bc792bf", "symbol": "VLE", "name": "Volvere plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -67.838, "architecture_energy": 55.188, "architecture_maturity": 26.679, "architecture_confidence": 86.13, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.63, "rotation_up": 16.89, "upward_expansion": 8.26, "deceleration": 51.72, "rotation_down": 69.53, "downward_expansion": 86.26 }, "activity_lines": [ 2118.0, 2161.272727, 2306.761905, 2385.591398 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 2100.0, "trend_reference": 2465.333333, "distance_from_trend": -0.148188, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1820.288462, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.153663, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.604608, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.176471, "excess_performance": -0.227706, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.148188, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.032317, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.153663, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.380488, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.196046, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.243076, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.176471, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.34311, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6882, "relative_activity": 0.472804, "balance": 0.34311, "dry_up": 0.702268, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.084132, "annualized_volatility": 0.227316, "from_high_reference": -0.25, "from_low_reference": 0.05 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2465.333333, "fair_value_reference": 1820.288462, "structural_low": 2010.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": -0.007029, "positive_rate": 0.35, "directional_follow_through": 0.55, "median_excess_return": -0.019205, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.15566, "worst_return": -0.072464, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.057971, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.072892, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.20283, "worst_return": -0.105505, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.042526, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.091308, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.102564, "worst_return": -0.194215, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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80.901948, "activity_lines": [ 2224.0, 2319.818182, 2442.761905, 2483.268817 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2120.0, "volume": 7221, "typical_volume": 14478.5, "trend": 2502.0, "fair_value": 1802.467949, "relative_strength": -17.201045, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.523093, "energy": 81.028458, "activity_lines": [ 2182.666667, 2266.727273, 2405.857143, 2457.806452 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2150.0, "volume": 15176, "typical_volume": 14817.45, "trend": 2490.333333, "fair_value": 1808.621795, "relative_strength": -16.907537, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.662753, "energy": 68.730178, "activity_lines": [ 2164.666667, 2228.727273, 2374.333333, 2435.096774 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2100.0, "volume": 11609, "typical_volume": 15176.6, "trend": 2477.0, "fair_value": 1814.455128, "relative_strength": -19.593056, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.494475, "energy": 61.088306, "activity_lines": [ 2137.333333, 2189.818182, 2339.47619, 2409.913978 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2100.0, "volume": 6882, "typical_volume": 14555.7, "trend": 2465.333333, "fair_value": 1820.288462, "relative_strength": -19.604608, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.838315, "energy": 55.18826, "activity_lines": [ 2118.0, 2161.272727, 2306.761905, 2385.591398 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }