{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "71868c2f-1f2d-4125-9300-d7e7d038a2be",
    "symbol": "MLHK",
    "name": "H&K AG",
    "exchange": "PAR",
    "country": "FR",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^FCHI",
    "stage": 4,
    "stage_name": "Declining",
    "phase": "4b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining",
    "transition": "stage_4_declining",
    "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact",
    "confidence": 68.574,
    "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction",
    "architecture_gate": "down",
    "architecture_direction": -16.757,
    "architecture_energy": 21.396,
    "architecture_maturity": 100.0,
    "architecture_confidence": 65.662,
    "architecture_tenure": "Extended",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 41.89,
        "rotation_up": 44.71,
        "upward_expansion": 29.01,
        "deceleration": 38.32,
        "rotation_down": 21.73,
        "downward_expansion": 51.68
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        33.533333,
        32.036035,
        32.616903,
        33.252725
      ],
      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": 0.166667
    },
    "latest_close": 34.099998,
    "trend_reference": 34.332559,
    "distance_from_trend": -0.006774,
    "trend_direction": "Weakening",
    "fair_value": 88.586073,
    "distance_from_fair_value": -0.615064,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": -22.037136,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Improving",
    "price_momentum": 0.014881,
    "excess_performance": -0.03843,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.006774,
        "read": "Below"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.116961,
        "read": "Falling"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.615064,
        "read": "Below anchor"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.015128,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.220371,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.207854,
        "read": "Improving"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.014881,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 1.685215,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 1405,
      "relative_activity": 0.354114,
      "balance": 1.685215,
      "dry_up": 1.067761,
      "accumulation_observations": 3,
      "distribution_observations": 2
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.095433,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.727496,
      "from_high_reference": -0.545333,
      "from_low_reference": 0.394836
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 34.332559,
      "fair_value_reference": 88.586073,
      "structural_low": 24.447312,
      "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 21,
        "median_return": -0.010101,
        "positive_rate": 0.380952,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.619048,
        "median_excess_return": -0.033013,
        "regime_survival": 0.857143,
        "best_return": 0.403017,
        "worst_return": -0.258373,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 8,
        "median_return": 0.000708,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": -0.005718,
        "regime_survival": 0.625,
        "best_return": 0.202532,
        "worst_return": -0.365517,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 5,
        "median_return": 0.133333,
        "positive_rate": 0.6,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.4,
        "median_excess_return": 0.015665,
        "regime_survival": 0.4,
        "best_return": 0.860759,
        "worst_return": -0.489655,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": 0.163518,
        "positive_rate": 0.75,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.25,
        "median_excess_return": 0.114588,
        "regime_survival": 0.5,
        "best_return": 0.328845,
        "worst_return": -0.517241,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2023-09-15",
        "end": "2023-10-06",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.0,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2023-10-13",
        "end": "2023-10-20",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.0,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2023-10-27",
        "end": "2023-11-10",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.005,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2023-11-17",
        "end": "2024-01-19",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.076531,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2024-01-26",
        "end": "2024-02-16",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.00885,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-02-23",
        "end": "2024-05-24",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": -0.033898,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-05-31",
        "end": "2024-07-19",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.008696,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2024-07-26",
        "end": "2024-10-18",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.053683,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2024-10-25",
        "end": "2024-11-01",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.076923,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2024-11-08",
        "end": "2025-03-14",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.118182,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-03-21",
        "end": "2025-05-23",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.135484,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-05-30",
        "end": "2025-06-13",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.072,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-06-20",
        "end": "2025-07-25",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.355667,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-08-01",
        "end": "2026-08-07",
        "tenure": "Extended",
        "return": -0.529655,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
    "chart_path": [
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        "date": "2023-08-18",
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        "typical_volume": 211.85,
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        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -35.737471,
        "energy": 18.915848,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
        "close": 35.0,
        "volume": 4303,
        "typical_volume": 3699.3,
        "trend": 40.096667,
        "fair_value": 94.643501,
        "relative_strength": -42.822491,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
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        "gate": "down",
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        "energy": 18.627536,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
        "close": 34.599998,
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        "trend": 39.716666,
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        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -41.747712,
        "energy": 23.686892,
        "activity_lines": [
          35.446666,
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
        "close": 32.0,
        "volume": 3426,
        "typical_volume": 3884.0,
        "trend": 39.216666,
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        "relative_strength": -44.092753,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
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        "direction": -71.628011,
        "energy": 52.531209,
        "activity_lines": [
          34.159999,
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          35.107143,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
        "close": 35.900002,
        "volume": 23414,
        "typical_volume": 4750.75,
        "trend": 38.88,
        "fair_value": 93.334714,
        "relative_strength": -35.741856,
        "stage": 4,
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        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -52.365917,
        "energy": 39.058084,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
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        "relative_strength": -38.393171,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
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        "typical_volume": 4547.0,
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        "fair_value": 92.405764,
        "relative_strength": -38.272925,
        "stage": 4,
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        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
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        "energy": 53.498712,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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        "trend": 36.914351,
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        "relative_strength": -47.741808,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
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        "direction": -89.748539,
        "energy": 79.784693,
        "activity_lines": [
          30.812086,
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          33.628282,
          34.699451
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 24.946236,
        "volume": 593,
        "typical_volume": 4052.25,
        "trend": 36.212559,
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        "relative_strength": -48.515749,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -89.816542,
        "energy": 91.718168,
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          28.398795,
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          33.927314
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "close": 32.5,
        "volume": 5763,
        "typical_volume": 3859.65,
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        "fair_value": 90.499122,
        "relative_strength": -29.294627,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -64.103903,
        "energy": 70.817767,
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          29.233677,
          30.812528,
          32.605984,
          33.687794
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 35.0,
        "volume": 3858,
        "typical_volume": 3812.8,
        "trend": 35.429226,
        "fair_value": 90.044723,
        "relative_strength": -21.754696,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -47.547235,
        "energy": 42.517285,
        "activity_lines": [
          30.963756,
          31.358404,
          32.730381,
          33.636877
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 30.0,
        "volume": 6740,
        "typical_volume": 3944.45,
        "trend": 34.962559,
        "fair_value": 89.513448,
        "relative_strength": -31.558824,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -60.150827,
        "energy": 36.760365,
        "activity_lines": [
          30.889104,
          30.99519,
          32.389063,
          33.286604
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 35.0,
        "volume": 4943,
        "typical_volume": 4052.4,
        "trend": 34.662559,
        "fair_value": 89.052646,
        "relative_strength": -19.822682,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -16.634538,
        "energy": 18.942072,
        "activity_lines": [
          32.663082,
          31.624704,
          32.546792,
          33.28902
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 34.099998,
        "volume": 1405,
        "typical_volume": 3967.65,
        "trend": 34.332559,
        "fair_value": 88.586073,
        "relative_strength": -22.037136,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -16.75654,
        "energy": 21.395975,
        "activity_lines": [
          33.533333,
          32.036035,
          32.616903,
          33.252725
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}