{ "ticker": { "uuid": "718e110c-0d2b-4d57-bf2c-6744d0e367df", "symbol": "QEFA", "name": "STATE STREET SPDR MSCI EAFE STRATEGICFACTORS ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 83.858, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 85.245, "architecture_energy": 78.612, "architecture_maturity": 37.334, "architecture_confidence": 69.519, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 6.58, "rotation_up": 79.99, "upward_expansion": 94.36, "deceleration": 39.43, "rotation_down": 11.23, "downward_expansion": 16.36 }, "activity_lines": [ 99.209053, 98.054695, 96.95711, 96.112019 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 101.6, "trend_reference": 95.249386, "distance_from_trend": 0.066674, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 78.066237, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.301459, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -1.022395, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.065011, "excess_performance": -0.060614, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.066674, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.032755, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.301459, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.026585, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.010224, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.017008, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.065011, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.302211, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 84081, "relative_activity": 0.477263, "balance": 1.302211, "dry_up": 0.565032, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.023054, "annualized_volatility": 0.148585, "from_high_reference": -0.003238, "from_low_reference": 0.231591 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 95.249386, "fair_value_reference": 78.066237, "structural_low": 88.436206, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 37, "median_return": 0.01412, "positive_rate": 0.702703, "directional_follow_through": 0.702703, "median_excess_return": -0.002002, "regime_survival": 0.783784, "best_return": 0.054576, "worst_return": -0.063517, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.028171, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.028622, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.087853, "worst_return": -0.088808, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.052751, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.0638, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.115891, "worst_return": -0.02409, "sufficient": true }, { 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96.207109, 95.45543, 94.994546 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 97.26, "volume": 79605, "typical_volume": 185727.9, "trend": 94.359212, "fair_value": 77.393534, "relative_strength": -1.428465, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.31341, "energy": 41.684483, "activity_lines": [ 96.84392, 96.441267, 95.69999, 95.200013 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 97.05, "volume": 131005, "typical_volume": 181597.2, "trend": 94.601047, "fair_value": 77.59491, "relative_strength": -1.040111, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.843588, "energy": 48.773596, "activity_lines": [ 97.00394, 96.614708, 95.929136, 95.373612 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 99.36, "volume": 103483, "typical_volume": 178263.6, "trend": 94.913647, "fair_value": 77.823514, "relative_strength": 0.193742, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 72.861516, "energy": 61.119692, "activity_lines": [ 97.872773, 97.160018, 96.356581, 95.680641 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 101.6, "volume": 84081, "typical_volume": 176173.25, "trend": 95.249386, "fair_value": 78.066237, "relative_strength": -1.022395, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 85.244903, "energy": 78.611772, "activity_lines": [ 99.209053, 98.054695, 96.95711, 96.112019 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }