{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7190dacf-53dc-4f32-b655-2d732884d568", "symbol": "000752", "name": "Tibet Development Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -46.377, "architecture_energy": 35.73, "architecture_maturity": 86.816, "architecture_confidence": 59.703, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.5, "rotation_up": 26.47, "upward_expansion": 16.77, "deceleration": 65.81, "rotation_down": 39.9, "downward_expansion": 66.77 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.314, 8.259818, 8.593905, 8.974344 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 8.91, "trend_reference": 9.530667, "distance_from_trend": -0.065123, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 8.431859, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.056706, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -16.842576, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.19802, "excess_performance": -0.20542, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.065123, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.099606, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.056706, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.085601, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.168426, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.102549, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.19802, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.959106, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 16943635, "relative_activity": 0.914253, "balance": 0.959106, "dry_up": 0.75684, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.069757, "annualized_volatility": 0.350078, "from_high_reference": -0.302271, "from_low_reference": 0.25493 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.530667, "fair_value_reference": 8.431859, "structural_low": 7.1, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": -0.00464, "positive_rate": 0.473684, "directional_follow_through": 0.526316, "median_excess_return": -0.014151, "regime_survival": 0.842105, "best_return": 0.292035, "worst_return": -0.303901, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.005753, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.058576, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.166976, "worst_return": -0.139446, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.044041, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.023304, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.330241, "worst_return": -0.111324, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"2026-07-24", "close": 8.02, "volume": 12130888, "typical_volume": 18798450.75, "trend": 9.702, "fair_value": 8.378397, "relative_strength": -23.104431, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.347739, "energy": 76.257897, "activity_lines": [ 7.958667, 8.239636, 8.699381, 9.123505 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.08, "volume": 9163401, "typical_volume": 18441614.7, "trend": 9.6, "fair_value": 8.403462, "relative_strength": -20.949521, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.348921, "energy": 64.052396, "activity_lines": [ 8.000667, 8.165636, 8.601762, 9.01886 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.91, "volume": 16943635, "typical_volume": 18532769.85, "trend": 9.530667, "fair_value": 8.431859, "relative_strength": -16.842576, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.3774, "energy": 35.730466, "activity_lines": [ 8.314, 8.259818, 8.593905, 8.974344 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }