{ "ticker": { "uuid": "719388e5-fb50-4975-afd7-36e229ea077e", "symbol": "HFSP", "name": "TRADERSAI LARGE CAP EQUITY & CASH ETF", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "model_version": "ta-0.1.0", "as_of_week": "2026-07-31", "benchmark": "SPY", "history_weeks": 93, "chart_window_weeks": 156, "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "stage_color": "red", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "stage_age_weeks": 14, "hard_stage_exit": false, "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "transition_score": 36.367, "is_transition_watch": false, "confidence": 96.0, "composite_score": 76.925, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_color": "red", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -88.506, "architecture_energy": 81.166, "architecture_maturity": 37.528, "architecture_confidence": 90.211, "architecture_age_weeks": 14, "is_reacceleration_watch": false, "architecture": { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -88.506, "energy": 81.166, "maturity": 37.528, "confidence": 90.211, "confirmation": 96.052, "age_weeks": 14, "candidate": null, "candidate_weeks": 0, "hard_reversal": false, "reacceleration_watch": false, "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Activity Lines are bearishly ordered below the 30-week Trend Line, their slopes are negative and price is accepted below the fan. Repair requires contraction and an upward fast/slow rotation\u2014not merely one strong week." }, "scores": { "balance": 5.02, "rotation_up": 20.27, "upward_expansion": 16.14, "deceleration": 42.85, "rotation_down": 71.84, "downward_expansion": 91.81 }, "activity_lines": { "5": 13.600333, "10": 13.755818, "20": 14.048405, "30": 14.355376 }, "activity_slopes": { "5": -1.082014, "10": -1.042188, "20": -1.218943, "30": -1.009414 }, "bullish_order": 0.0, "bearish_order": 1.0, "fan_width_atr": 2.391123, "fan_width_change_4": 0.198142, "fan_width_percentile": 0.90625, "fast_slow_gap_atr": -1.658853, "fast_slow_gap_change_4": 0.052078, "price_acceptance": -0.833333, "current_fan_distance_atr": -1.093626, "accepted_above": 0.0, "accepted_below": 0.833333, "crossing_density": 0.0 }, "interpretation": { "headline": "The primary weekly trend is declining.", "body": "Price below a falling 30-week average with weak relative performance defines the defensive state. Bottom-fishing evidence is kept separate from a confirmed Stage 1 repair.", "phase": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "Stage 4 decline intact", "transition_context": "The evidence score for the next canonical transition is 36/100." }, "latest_close": 13.255, "sma_30": 14.720667, "distance_from_sma_30": -0.099565, "sma_30_slope": -0.040853, "fair_value": 17.074614, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.223701, "fair_value_gap_change_13": -0.049327, "is_fair_value_repair": false, "mansfield_rs": -22.652931, "mansfield_rs_change_13": -1.627649, "range_position_52": 0.0, "returns": { "13": -0.086492, "26": -0.134226, "52": -0.266058 }, "relative_returns": { "26": -0.219547, "52": -0.480892 }, "stage_scores": { "1": 61.82, "2": 0.0, "3": 17.27, "4": 100.0 }, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs 30-week average", "positive": false, "value": -0.099565, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "30-week slope", "positive": false, "value": -0.040853, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair 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"architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -88.505558, "architecture_energy": 81.165897, "activity_5": 13.600333, "activity_10": 13.755818, "activity_20": 14.048405, "activity_30": 14.355376 } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed weekly OHLCV", "trend": "30-week simple moving average; slope compares the current value with ten completed weeks earlier", "fair_value": "current horizontal Fair Value is the arithmetic mean of up to 156 completed weekly closes; Stage 1 repair measures whether price is below and rising toward that anchor", "relative_strength": "Mansfield-style relative performance line: ticker/SPY divided by its trailing 52-week mean, minus one", "classification": "Trend Architecture uses the Activity Line position as a direction gate, then classifies ordering, four-week slopes, ATR-normalized fan width, fast/slow rotation and six-week price acceptance. Ordinary regime changes require two completed observations; a fully aligned reversal beyond the fan can change immediately.", "architecture_boundary": "The green/red/orange Trend gate is derived from the same Activity Lines and is therefore not counted as an independent vote. Relative strength and volume alter confirmation, while point-in-time Fair Value supplies context rather than determining the regime.", "admissibility": "Stage 2 cannot persist when price is more than 5% below the 30-week average or 8% below current Fair Value, the ten-week average slope is below -2%, Mansfield RS is below -8, or the 26-week return is below -15%. Stage 4 requires price no more than 5% above the average, RS no higher than +8, and at least one deterioration test: slope at or below +1.5%, 13-week return at or below -10%, or 26-week return at or below -12%. These are exit boundaries, not entry signals.", "confidence": "separation between the leading and runner-up stage evidence scores; not forecast probability" }, "historical_outcomes": [ { "weeks": 4, "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.012608, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.026243, "stage_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.009304, "worst_return": -0.034435, "sufficient": false }, { "weeks": 13, "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.086492, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.12574, "stage_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.086492, "worst_return": -0.086492, "sufficient": false }, { "weeks": 26, "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "stage_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "weeks": 52, "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "stage_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "stage_ledger": [ { "stage": 4, "name": "Declining", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-07-31", "weeks": 14, "return": -0.086492, "active": true } ], "architecture_outcomes": [ { "weeks": 4, "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.012608, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.026243, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.009304, "worst_return": -0.034435, "sufficient": false }, { "weeks": 13, "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.086492, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.12574, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.086492, "worst_return": -0.086492, "sufficient": false }, { "weeks": 26, "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "weeks": 52, "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "architecture_ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-07-31", "weeks": 14, "return": -0.086492, "active": true } ] } }