{ "ticker": { "uuid": "719a9325-b207-436d-833c-252c33cae84d", "symbol": "PAUS", "name": "Invesco MSCI USA ESG Climate Paris Aligned UCITS USD Acc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 87.393, "architecture_energy": 64.263, "architecture_maturity": 44.032, "architecture_confidence": 89.517, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.54, "rotation_up": 58.88, "upward_expansion": 83.4, "deceleration": 60.39, "rotation_down": 26.28, "downward_expansion": 10.06 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.965533, 6.910636, 6.816336, 6.646033 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 7.216, "trend_reference": 6.461267, "distance_from_trend": 0.116809, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 5.734187, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.258417, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 3.114452, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.195098, "excess_performance": 0.143862, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.116809, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.027738, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.258417, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.055461, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.031145, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.031952, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.195098, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 38.737096, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 82989, "relative_activity": 0.211945, "balance": 38.737096, "dry_up": 0.272216, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.024, "annualized_volatility": 0.161484, "from_high_reference": 0.0, "from_low_reference": 0.275137 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.461267, "fair_value_reference": 5.734187, "structural_low": 5.659, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": 0.012265, "positive_rate": 0.73913, "directional_follow_through": 0.73913, "median_excess_return": 0.001577, "regime_survival": 0.782609, "best_return": 0.047131, "worst_return": -0.040303, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.027867, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": 0.001539, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.103993, "worst_return": -0.05069, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.058754, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.074996, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.145175, "worst_return": 0.024102, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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6.934, "volume": 137269, "typical_volume": 392045.2, "trend": 6.389167, "fair_value": 5.672766, "relative_strength": 2.282663, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 72.486313, "energy": 58.818998, "activity_lines": [ 6.859733, 6.850736, 6.658162, 6.514366 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 6.802, "volume": 161532, "typical_volume": 397154.45, "trend": 6.405367, "fair_value": 5.68684, "relative_strength": -0.471905, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.926196, "energy": 49.315929, "activity_lines": [ 6.8443, 6.847809, 6.691926, 6.541 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.825, "volume": 111945, "typical_volume": 394477.6, "trend": 6.419367, "fair_value": 5.701255, "relative_strength": -1.226275, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 51.541033, "energy": 49.980545, "activity_lines": [ 6.8395, 6.846318, 6.724329, 6.568073 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.8475, "volume": 69890, "typical_volume": 395654.65, "trend": 6.43575, "fair_value": 5.716309, "relative_strength": -1.950129, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.076983, "energy": 48.332429, "activity_lines": [ 6.8463, 6.845909, 6.75509, 6.595695 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.216, "volume": 82989, "typical_volume": 391560.0, "trend": 6.461267, "fair_value": 5.734187, "relative_strength": 3.114452, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 87.392778, "energy": 64.263072, "activity_lines": [ 6.965533, 6.910636, 6.816336, 6.646033 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }