{ "ticker": { "uuid": "719c5d08-569d-4271-99e7-095d6e939282", "symbol": "HTWN", "name": "HSBC MSCI Taiwan Capped UCITS ETF", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 38.225, "architecture_energy": 26.73, "architecture_maturity": 73.544, "architecture_confidence": 92.546, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 36.32, "rotation_up": 26.6, "upward_expansion": 60.08, "deceleration": 88.33, "rotation_down": 30.04, "downward_expansion": 21.42 }, "activity_lines": [ 139.730546, 142.561507, 139.398154, 131.551146 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 142.740005, "trend_reference": 120.782125, "distance_from_trend": 0.181797, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 78.094153, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.827794, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 18.31762, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.525652, "excess_performance": 0.35476, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.181797, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.192087, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.827794, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.055705, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.183176, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.157838, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.525652, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.971304, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6343, "relative_activity": 0.977772, "balance": 0.971304, "dry_up": 1.454403, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.065576, "annualized_volatility": 0.327691, "from_high_reference": -0.074019, "from_low_reference": 0.925492 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 120.782125, "fair_value_reference": 78.094153, "structural_low": 95.669998, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.023091, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": 0.010362, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.224285, "worst_return": -0.063301, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.035506, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.053422, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.517903, "worst_return": -0.114281, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.070139, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.079137, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.651506, "worst_return": -0.096552, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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"label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.096305, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.132764, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.254211, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.095672, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.072748, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-01-02", 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"volume": 4802, "typical_volume": 6390.3, "trend": 119.073226, "fair_value": 77.497878, "relative_strength": 16.388766, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.608979, "energy": 27.342111, "activity_lines": [ 139.687406, 142.776286, 138.187262, 130.024257 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 142.740005, "volume": 6343, "typical_volume": 6487.2, "trend": 120.782125, "fair_value": 78.094153, "relative_strength": 18.31762, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.225164, "energy": 26.73047, "activity_lines": [ 139.730546, 142.561507, 139.398154, 131.551146 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }