{ "ticker": { "uuid": "719da256-d065-4f13-89ab-d822e4ffbd0e", "symbol": "002603", "name": "Shijiazhuang Yiling Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 61.344, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 26.542, "architecture_energy": 31.691, "architecture_maturity": 15.622, "architecture_confidence": 79.896, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.78, "rotation_up": 65.59, "upward_expansion": 43.11, "deceleration": 37.34, "rotation_down": 14.33, "downward_expansion": 15.78 }, "activity_lines": [ 16.681333, 16.160372, 15.961279, 16.137056 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 16.99, "trend_reference": 16.506742, "distance_from_trend": 0.029276, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 17.336521, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.019988, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -2.136012, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.033011, "excess_performance": -0.040411, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.029276, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.046806, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.019988, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.057526, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.02136, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.148172, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.033011, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.302132, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 144252842, "relative_activity": 1.721162, "balance": 1.302132, "dry_up": 2.296749, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.061237, "annualized_volatility": 0.223787, "from_high_reference": -0.212697, "from_low_reference": 0.160089 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.506742, "fair_value_reference": 17.336521, "structural_low": 14.645423, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.043721, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.040254, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.145506, "worst_return": -0.127199, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.119949, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.133434, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.124228, "worst_return": -0.199291, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.19686, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.115804, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.303842, "worst_return": -0.284968, 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{ "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.043668, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.005461, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.102265, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.007951, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.027124, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": 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"volume": 86726375, "typical_volume": 57401895.35, "trend": 16.596075, "fair_value": 17.515888, "relative_strength": -16.079151, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.980268, "energy": 39.644344, "activity_lines": [ 15.28446, 15.303529, 15.70375, 16.099183 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 16.5, "volume": 303161438, "typical_volume": 69903706.7, "trend": 16.563075, "fair_value": 17.466016, "relative_strength": -1.738902, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -25.309121, "energy": 15.053203, "activity_lines": [ 15.716, 15.488908, 15.745168, 16.092985 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 16.4, "volume": 199050999, "typical_volume": 75502020.3, "trend": 16.524408, "fair_value": 17.42041, "relative_strength": -2.542573, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -16.590841, "energy": 18.514811, "activity_lines": [ 16.028667, 15.661306, 15.781729, 16.082464 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 16.889999, "volume": 123508948, "typical_volume": 78930089.85, "trend": 16.509408, "fair_value": 17.377218, "relative_strength": 2.088433, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 5.675379, "energy": 20.28238, "activity_lines": [ 16.412666, 15.915725, 15.86667, 16.10605 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 16.99, "volume": 144252842, "typical_volume": 83811332.8, "trend": 16.506742, "fair_value": 17.336521, "relative_strength": -2.136012, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 26.541789, "energy": 31.691302, "activity_lines": [ 16.681333, 16.160372, 15.961279, 16.137056 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }