{ "ticker": { "uuid": "71a36517-fc42-4227-9f50-3fb3ea7051f6", "symbol": "300339", "name": "Jiangsu Hoperun Software Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -58.625, "architecture_energy": 46.02, "architecture_maturity": 69.346, "architecture_confidence": 89.764, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.91, "rotation_up": 18.1, "upward_expansion": 5.88, "deceleration": 51.56, "rotation_down": 56.54, "downward_expansion": 76.88 }, "activity_lines": [ 36.952, 37.434364, 39.309831, 40.713714 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 38.639999, "trend_reference": 43.348335, "distance_from_trend": -0.108616, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 40.402023, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.043612, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -24.219811, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.225951, "excess_performance": -0.233351, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.108616, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.103511, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.043612, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.263466, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.242198, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.019268, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.225951, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.67166, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 150833006, "relative_activity": 1.335582, "balance": 0.67166, "dry_up": 1.194676, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.090362, "annualized_volatility": 0.424809, "from_high_reference": -0.468286, "from_low_reference": 0.152745 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 43.348335, "fair_value_reference": 40.402023, "structural_low": 33.52, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": -0.000268, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.013476, "regime_survival": 0.857143, "best_return": 1.836863, "worst_return": -0.283308, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.07483, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.00077, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.831863, "worst_return": -0.261281, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.158992, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.019724, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.694785, "worst_return": -0.383864, "sufficient": 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"direction": -78.230841, "energy": 76.496063, "activity_lines": [ 35.978666, 37.575834, 39.7736, 41.451006 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 37.740002, "volume": 134378440, "typical_volume": 109960895.3, "trend": 43.707672, "fair_value": 40.296402, "relative_strength": -22.858745, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.770508, "energy": 55.657167, "activity_lines": [ 36.306667, 37.377455, 39.481983, 41.040661 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 38.639999, "volume": 150833006, "typical_volume": 112934289.0, "trend": 43.348335, "fair_value": 40.402023, "relative_strength": -24.219811, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.6251, "energy": 46.020075, "activity_lines": [ 36.952, 37.434364, 39.309831, 40.713714 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }