{ "ticker": { "uuid": "71a96282-c387-4255-b6a0-b3f5b23c5676", "symbol": "UIMM", "name": "UBS MSCI World Socially Responsible UCITS ETF USD dis", "exchange": "AMS", "country": "NL", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AEX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 73.078, "architecture_energy": 58.844, "architecture_maturity": 64.602, "architecture_confidence": 71.502, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.28, "rotation_up": 48.71, "upward_expansion": 72.22, "deceleration": 85.5, "rotation_down": 27.81, "downward_expansion": 22.22 }, "activity_lines": [ 178.946663, 179.011817, 175.617334, 171.473812 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 182.929993, "trend_reference": 167.056014, "distance_from_trend": 0.095022, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 148.377579, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.232868, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 0.458701, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.150129, "excess_performance": 0.033466, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.095022, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.041499, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.232868, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.060187, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.004587, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.008459, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.150129, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.06654, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4465, "relative_activity": 1.574401, "balance": 2.06654, "dry_up": 1.205483, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.019175, "annualized_volatility": 0.127083, "from_high_reference": 0.0, "from_low_reference": 0.223121 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 167.056014, "fair_value_reference": 148.377579, "structural_low": 149.559998, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.016995, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.009997, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.108064, "worst_return": -0.055019, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.036504, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": 0.000887, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.082517, "worst_return": -0.185952, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.096922, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.000134, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.161458, "worst_return": -0.076989, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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2814.2, "trend": 164.68961, "fair_value": 146.894624, "relative_strength": 1.698379, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 74.734351, "energy": 90.206387, "activity_lines": [ 180.410003, 177.831094, 171.675811, 168.204114 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 177.399994, "volume": 1634, "typical_volume": 2716.65, "trend": 165.28959, "fair_value": 147.25774, "relative_strength": -1.034642, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.167411, "energy": 77.896918, "activity_lines": [ 179.681333, 178.187819, 172.706477, 169.024139 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 176.740005, "volume": 4070, "typical_volume": 2757.15, "trend": 165.858601, "fair_value": 147.605774, "relative_strength": -1.173996, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.852684, "energy": 65.135204, "activity_lines": [ 178.660668, 178.259093, 173.593002, 169.762875 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 175.869995, "volume": 3506, "typical_volume": 2673.5, "trend": 166.421868, "fair_value": 147.964912, "relative_strength": -2.385151, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 51.573307, "energy": 52.509322, "activity_lines": [ 177.521999, 178.028546, 174.31562, 170.408772 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 182.929993, "volume": 4465, "typical_volume": 2836.0, "trend": 167.056014, "fair_value": 148.377579, "relative_strength": 0.458701, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.07759, "energy": 58.844018, "activity_lines": [ 178.946663, 179.011817, 175.617334, 171.473812 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }