{ "ticker": { "uuid": "71acdb78-7d31-48cb-af04-b57edf4c8488", "symbol": "ACE", "name": "Ascelia Pharma AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -68.535, "architecture_energy": 88.723, "architecture_maturity": 32.0, "architecture_confidence": 85.624, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.81, "rotation_up": 8.17, "upward_expansion": 21.99, "deceleration": 37.0, "rotation_down": 81.42, "downward_expansion": 97.65 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.5522, 1.020509, 1.786919, 2.136652 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.599, "trend_reference": 2.5071, "distance_from_trend": -0.761079, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.206507, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.857602, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -81.930676, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.785305, "excess_performance": -0.846799, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.761079, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.162858, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.857602, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.396648, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.819307, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.539935, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.785305, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.321067, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4841534, "relative_activity": 0.669996, "balance": 0.321067, "dry_up": 1.343242, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.705085, "annualized_volatility": 1.950826, "from_high_reference": -0.884139, "from_low_reference": 0.316484 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.5071, "fair_value_reference": 4.206507, "structural_low": 0.455, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 37, "median_return": -0.002677, "positive_rate": 0.459459, "directional_follow_through": 0.540541, "median_excess_return": -0.024665, "regime_survival": 0.810811, "best_return": 1.578635, "worst_return": -0.340347, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.023297, "positive_rate": 0.538462, "directional_follow_through": 0.461538, "median_excess_return": -0.039157, "regime_survival": 0.538462, "best_return": 2.122995, "worst_return": -0.309113, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.049917, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.174529, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 1.34949, "worst_return": -0.735135, "sufficient": true }, { 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2.196309, 2.564414, 2.702918 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.49, "volume": 24680445, "typical_volume": 7008555.55, "trend": 2.770567, "fair_value": 4.426404, "relative_strength": -85.820841, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -88.400583, "energy": 95.689342, "activity_lines": [ 1.113, 1.829273, 2.348024, 2.550043 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.504, "volume": 4933134, "typical_volume": 7106356.75, "trend": 2.6817, "fair_value": 4.326045, "relative_strength": -85.221468, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.159447, "energy": 91.965372, "activity_lines": [ 0.744533, 1.507782, 2.145562, 2.403813 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.533, "volume": 4371108, "typical_volume": 7143846.8, "trend": 2.5913, "fair_value": 4.228693, "relative_strength": -84.114723, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.394883, "energy": 88.854212, "activity_lines": [ 0.552467, 1.236764, 1.957224, 2.265187 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.599, "volume": 4841534, "typical_volume": 7226215.95, "trend": 2.5071, "fair_value": 4.206507, "relative_strength": -81.930676, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.535314, "energy": 88.723044, "activity_lines": [ 0.5522, 1.020509, 1.786919, 2.136652 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }