{ "ticker": { "uuid": "71ad5f4d-1a70-4655-a52c-274942402006", "symbol": "3066", "name": "Taiwan Oasis Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 35.314, "architecture_energy": 17.583, "architecture_maturity": 54.209, "architecture_confidence": 82.682, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.43, "rotation_up": 31.24, "upward_expansion": 58.6, "deceleration": 85.0, "rotation_down": 28.61, "downward_expansion": 19.94 }, "activity_lines": [ 22.590001, 23.062728, 22.232143, 21.334194 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 23.200001, "trend_reference": 19.831667, "distance_from_trend": 0.169846, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 20.157051, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.150962, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.922793, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.546667, "excess_performance": 0.105295, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.169846, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.181863, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.150962, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.182235, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.039228, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.139364, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.546667, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.778703, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6443957, "relative_activity": 1.401415, "balance": 3.778703, "dry_up": 0.782526, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.156167, "annualized_volatility": 0.784403, "from_high_reference": -0.262321, "from_low_reference": 0.848606 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 19.831667, "fair_value_reference": 20.157051, "structural_low": 14.0, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.030928, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.024033, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.56, "worst_return": -0.12098, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.055882, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.041363, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.409429, "worst_return": -0.177331, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.12, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.151104, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.256637, "worst_return": -0.398537, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.042242, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.047364, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.00885, "worst_return": -0.093333, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2024-08-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.039735, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-08-30", "end": "2024-10-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.108153, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.111517, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.246667, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.028698, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.234899, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.080495, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.097222, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.166667, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 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"Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.981903, "energy": 57.384468, "activity_lines": [ 23.86, 23.18, 21.876429, 20.725161 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 19.950001, "volume": 1960039, "typical_volume": 4950535.2, "trend": 19.171667, "fair_value": 20.100641, "relative_strength": -12.969526, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 32.846165, "energy": 22.547949, "activity_lines": [ 22.483334, 22.706364, 21.77381, 20.787957 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 23.950001, "volume": 3801709, "typical_volume": 4388618.2, "trend": 19.511667, "fair_value": 20.129808, "relative_strength": 2.089083, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.850526, "energy": 21.595473, "activity_lines": [ 22.576667, 22.975455, 22.041905, 21.096237 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 23.200001, "volume": 6443957, "typical_volume": 4598179.7, "trend": 19.831667, "fair_value": 20.157051, "relative_strength": -3.922793, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.3136, "energy": 17.583016, "activity_lines": [ 22.590001, 23.062728, 22.232143, 21.334194 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }