{ "ticker": { "uuid": "71ae73f9-eb11-44d2-85a8-e2cacfd681b6", "symbol": "603883", "name": "LBX Pharmacy Chain Joint Stock Company", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -26.088, "architecture_energy": 25.856, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 68.025, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.48, "rotation_up": 38.15, "upward_expansion": 21.68, "deceleration": 44.16, "rotation_down": 18.36, "downward_expansion": 53.35 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.336667, 11.989695, 12.151101, 12.603735 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 12.39, "trend_reference": 13.342018, "distance_from_trend": -0.071355, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 17.519421, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.292785, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -15.520647, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.193884, "excess_performance": -0.15068, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.071355, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.093937, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.292785, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.021444, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.155206, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.117519, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.193884, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.754471, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 51446577, "relative_activity": 1.37359, "balance": 0.754471, "dry_up": 1.683773, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.062131, "annualized_volatility": 0.267768, "from_high_reference": -0.350501, "from_low_reference": 0.155497 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.342018, "fair_value_reference": 17.519421, "structural_low": 10.722656, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 32, "median_return": -0.006251, "positive_rate": 0.46875, "directional_follow_through": 0.53125, "median_excess_return": -0.006401, "regime_survival": 0.875, "best_return": 0.302758, "worst_return": -0.237288, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.008874, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": -0.018177, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.097867, "worst_return": -0.152303, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.011291, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.01828, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.146258, "worst_return": -0.172149, 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"relative_strength": -26.542812, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.662902, "energy": 65.058042, "activity_lines": [ 11.335307, 11.559054, 12.288302, 12.916041 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 12.27, "volume": 89750987, "typical_volume": 34548029.0, "trend": 13.624018, "fair_value": 17.667235, "relative_strength": -15.221517, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.278005, "energy": 53.736806, "activity_lines": [ 11.627188, 11.630533, 12.228538, 12.82191 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.97, "volume": 59591403, "typical_volume": 35578255.85, "trend": 13.505352, "fair_value": 17.61313, "relative_strength": -17.467855, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.841429, "energy": 37.956702, "activity_lines": [ 11.788828, 11.667983, 12.153011, 12.7152 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.81, "volume": 51467813, "typical_volume": 36548202.3, "trend": 13.422352, "fair_value": 17.567136, "relative_strength": -11.213541, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -28.814062, "energy": 23.867988, "activity_lines": [ 12.202, 11.874899, 12.168485, 12.670338 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.39, "volume": 51446577, "typical_volume": 37454093.35, "trend": 13.342018, "fair_value": 17.519421, "relative_strength": -15.520647, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -26.08815, "energy": 25.856252, "activity_lines": [ 12.336667, 11.989695, 12.151101, 12.603735 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }