{ "ticker": { "uuid": "71aefa5e-6c34-4d6c-b6d6-67357000aa7f", "symbol": "4186", "name": "Taiwan Advance Bio-Pharmaceutical Inc.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -73.907, "architecture_energy": 75.646, "architecture_maturity": 22.208, "architecture_confidence": 87.1, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 6.79, "rotation_up": 10.98, "upward_expansion": 16.73, "deceleration": 37.22, "rotation_down": 75.08, "downward_expansion": 92.39 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.908667, 9.284182, 9.739667, 10.009097 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 8.55, "trend_reference": 10.396333, "distance_from_trend": -0.177595, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 14.253782, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.400159, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -47.277399, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.222727, "excess_performance": -0.664099, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.177595, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.065638, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.400159, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.086371, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.472774, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.046501, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.222727, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.34703, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 369205, "relative_activity": 0.312967, "balance": 0.34703, "dry_up": 0.606911, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.096986, "annualized_volatility": 0.36762, "from_high_reference": -0.515581, "from_low_reference": 0.016647 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.396333, "fair_value_reference": 14.253782, "structural_low": 8.41, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 34, "median_return": -0.005079, "positive_rate": 0.441176, "directional_follow_through": 0.529412, "median_excess_return": -0.046441, "regime_survival": 0.764706, "best_return": 0.245847, "worst_return": -0.111111, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.013854, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.040608, "regime_survival": 0.416667, "best_return": 0.277778, "worst_return": -0.228571, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.071059, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.095498, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.368771, "worst_return": -0.222727, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"relative_strength": -41.514316, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.841579, "energy": 25.778681, "activity_lines": [ 10.01, 10.056364, 10.340714, 10.506667 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 9.6, "volume": 636149, "typical_volume": 1119068.1, "trend": 10.680667, "fair_value": 14.471282, "relative_strength": -39.850805, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.063302, "energy": 33.739305, "activity_lines": [ 9.872, 9.956, 10.25919, 10.432753 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.31, "volume": 1140133, "typical_volume": 1159312.95, "trend": 10.621, "fair_value": 14.41782, "relative_strength": -42.140727, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.975036, "energy": 46.515512, "activity_lines": [ 9.677333, 9.823818, 10.154333, 10.344323 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.98, "volume": 663807, "typical_volume": 1169054.25, "trend": 10.552, "fair_value": 14.362885, "relative_strength": -42.740276, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.375352, "energy": 58.969766, "activity_lines": [ 9.409333, 9.649636, 10.024429, 10.238452 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.93, "volume": 690731, "typical_volume": 1183487.35, "trend": 10.483, "fair_value": 14.310833, "relative_strength": -43.757649, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.421745, "energy": 66.803764, "activity_lines": [ 9.183333, 9.490364, 9.896762, 10.133806 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 8.55, "volume": 369205, "typical_volume": 1179694.15, "trend": 10.396333, "fair_value": 14.253782, "relative_strength": -47.277399, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.907389, "energy": 75.646025, "activity_lines": [ 8.908667, 9.284182, 9.739667, 10.009097 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }