{ "ticker": { "uuid": "71af700d-0d3f-43ca-9bf3-4584d912c89b", "symbol": "3632", "name": "Papago Inc.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.137, "architecture_energy": 37.26, "architecture_maturity": 48.425, "architecture_confidence": 92.161, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.45, "rotation_up": 18.67, "upward_expansion": 3.44, "deceleration": 52.27, "rotation_down": 51.98, "downward_expansion": 74.44 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.856667, 7.999636, 8.135286, 8.416258 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 7.36, "trend_reference": 8.788333, "distance_from_trend": -0.162526, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 12.037051, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.388555, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -44.158866, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.20775, "excess_performance": -0.649122, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.162526, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.052573, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.388555, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.037141, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.441589, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.01123, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.20775, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.714915, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 41805, "relative_activity": 0.398799, "balance": 0.714915, "dry_up": 0.375823, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.120506, "annualized_volatility": 0.390424, "from_high_reference": -0.30566, "from_low_reference": 0.020804 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.788333, "fair_value_reference": 12.037051, "structural_low": 7.21, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": -0.018445, "positive_rate": 0.384615, "directional_follow_through": 0.576923, "median_excess_return": -0.037005, "regime_survival": 0.846154, "best_return": 0.215881, "worst_return": -0.122222, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.035714, "positive_rate": 0.222222, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": -0.165189, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.17125, "worst_return": -0.14346, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.131551, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.268448, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.041111, "worst_return": -0.185714, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2024-09-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.066667, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2024-10-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.007042, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2024-11-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.010563, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.064286, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.061433, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 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18509, "typical_volume": 103035.3, "trend": 8.949, "fair_value": 12.185064, "relative_strength": -39.349157, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.766057, "energy": 27.639838, "activity_lines": [ 8.170667, 8.160545, 8.328048, 8.616194 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.25, "volume": 21193, "typical_volume": 102864.35, "trend": 8.906667, "fair_value": 12.138269, "relative_strength": -35.691426, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.724831, "energy": 18.162204, "activity_lines": [ 8.211333, 8.183818, 8.291095, 8.571097 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.0, "volume": 76079, "typical_volume": 103600.35, "trend": 8.853333, "fair_value": 12.090833, "relative_strength": -38.200841, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.169007, "energy": 22.978086, "activity_lines": [ 8.146, 8.145273, 8.239143, 8.512602 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 7.36, "volume": 41805, "typical_volume": 104827.35, "trend": 8.788333, "fair_value": 12.037051, "relative_strength": -44.158866, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.137218, "energy": 37.260218, "activity_lines": [ 7.856667, 7.999636, 8.135286, 8.416258 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }