{ "ticker": { "uuid": "71b56449-c07c-49e1-95f3-14db100c9ae7", "symbol": "QQQX", "name": "Global X Nasdaq-100 Index ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 40.876, "architecture_energy": 28.346, "architecture_maturity": 67.145, "architecture_confidence": 88.5, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.83, "rotation_up": 27.27, "upward_expansion": 59.11, "deceleration": 88.32, "rotation_down": 31.85, "downward_expansion": 20.44 }, "activity_lines": [ 44.289334, 44.851819, 44.416477, 42.930581 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 45.310001, "trend_reference": 41.123334, "distance_from_trend": 0.101808, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 34.862304, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.299685, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 1.853743, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.211174, "excess_performance": 0.090752, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.101808, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.058312, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.299685, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -7e-05, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.018537, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.038078, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.211174, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.975309, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 12000, "relative_activity": 0.421793, "balance": 1.975309, "dry_up": 0.550967, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.042511, "annualized_volatility": 0.212004, "from_high_reference": -0.066735, "from_low_reference": 0.308088 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 41.123334, "fair_value_reference": 34.862304, "structural_low": 34.84, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.004224, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.002966, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.004224, "worst_return": 0.004224, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.035639, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.074054, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.035639, "worst_return": -0.035639, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.232841, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.127334, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.232841, "worst_return": 0.232841, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.028067, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.034847, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.020093, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.001337, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.054809, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.039967, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.093961, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.009808, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.044491, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-05-17", "close": 27.346823, "volume": 22000, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": 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expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.693005, "energy": 35.967904, "activity_lines": [ 44.654667, 45.173818, 44.044191, 42.476774 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 43.380001, "volume": 14700, "typical_volume": 29295.0, "trend": 40.919667, "fair_value": 34.772238, "relative_strength": 0.666975, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.60071, "energy": 25.791064, "activity_lines": [ 44.092667, 44.826546, 44.154572, 42.647334 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 45.310001, "volume": 12000, "typical_volume": 28450.0, "trend": 41.123334, "fair_value": 34.862304, "relative_strength": 1.853743, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.875759, "energy": 28.345514, "activity_lines": [ 44.289334, 44.851819, 44.416477, 42.930581 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }