{ "ticker": { "uuid": "71c29ed9-bcab-4bc2-b000-f10cef665487", "symbol": "000546", "name": "Jinyuan EP Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.714, "architecture_energy": 74.879, "architecture_maturity": 33.814, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.01, "rotation_up": 19.03, "upward_expansion": 17.65, "deceleration": 39.38, "rotation_down": 63.56, "downward_expansion": 90.99 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.400667, 4.551273, 5.19119, 5.522882 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 4.71, "trend_reference": 5.867333, "distance_from_trend": -0.19725, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.643333, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.165387, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -20.860912, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.19211, "excess_performance": -0.19951, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.19725, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.080547, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.165387, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.500659, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.208609, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.332087, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.19211, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.147114, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 105518652, "relative_activity": 0.538699, "balance": 0.147114, "dry_up": 0.491141, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.121509, "annualized_volatility": 0.598463, "from_high_reference": -0.436603, "from_low_reference": 0.239474 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.867333, "fair_value_reference": 5.643333, "structural_low": 3.8, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": -0.01873, "positive_rate": 0.36, "directional_follow_through": 0.64, "median_excess_return": -0.020987, "regime_survival": 0.84, "best_return": 0.195349, "worst_return": -0.174074, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.074074, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.069718, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.733529, "worst_return": -0.375121, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.102379, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.136998, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 1.089312, "worst_return": -0.4791, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"fair_value": 5.704359, "relative_strength": -29.123492, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.238833, "energy": 78.60647, "activity_lines": [ 4.835333, 5.174, 5.799048, 5.973699 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 4.19, "volume": 92310500, "typical_volume": 205690413.3, "trend": 6.126667, "fair_value": 5.690385, "relative_strength": -28.274263, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.073202, "energy": 84.690618, "activity_lines": [ 4.585333, 4.911455, 5.618143, 5.843591 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.02, "volume": 107574983, "typical_volume": 200817069.8, "trend": 6.011333, "fair_value": 5.673269, "relative_strength": -30.858487, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.101768, "energy": 87.117368, "activity_lines": [ 4.348, 4.684182, 5.433048, 5.707677 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.36, "volume": 79408578, "typical_volume": 197717553.7, "trend": 5.923, "fair_value": 5.657564, "relative_strength": -23.29, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.022106, "energy": 82.94794, "activity_lines": [ 4.301333, 4.569818, 5.290667, 5.60114 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.71, "volume": 105518652, "typical_volume": 195876905.6, "trend": 5.867333, "fair_value": 5.643333, "relative_strength": -20.860912, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.713857, "energy": 74.878863, "activity_lines": [ 4.400667, 4.551273, 5.19119, 5.522882 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }