{ "ticker": { "uuid": "71c9a9a1-9de8-48df-83ed-e18275b9e2d3", "symbol": "DSG", "name": "The Descartes Systems Group Inc.", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 68.423, "architecture_energy": 49.82, "architecture_maturity": 32.829, "architecture_confidence": 75.698, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 33.59, "rotation_up": 61.69, "upward_expansion": 85.19, "deceleration": 44.73, "rotation_down": 17.01, "downward_expansion": 11.85 }, "activity_lines": [ 104.996, 103.414728, 101.753286, 100.523914 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 111.080002, "trend_reference": 100.039333, "distance_from_trend": 0.110363, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 126.636667, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.122845, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -13.015836, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.217315, "excess_performance": 0.096894, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.110363, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.05508, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.122845, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.096654, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.130158, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.168234, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.217315, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.565769, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1372100, "relative_activity": 1.156085, "balance": 1.565769, "dry_up": 1.264102, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.072359, "annualized_volatility": 0.42643, "from_high_reference": -0.263102, "from_low_reference": 0.302838 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 100.039333, "fair_value_reference": 126.636667, "structural_low": 85.260002, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.028142, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.003422, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.093634, "worst_return": -0.171251, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.000401, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.019915, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.121972, "worst_return": -0.111688, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.021804, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.0242, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.196795, "worst_return": -0.272664, 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100.817091, 99.590143, 99.863032 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 101.980003, "volume": 1286300, "typical_volume": 1269780.0, "trend": 102.303333, "fair_value": 126.567051, "relative_strength": -21.692507, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 0.556075, "energy": 3.119065, "activity_lines": [ 101.435334, 101.164182, 99.941, 99.793032 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 103.860001, "volume": 1374200, "typical_volume": 1227495.0, "trend": 101.644, "fair_value": 126.558269, "relative_strength": -19.172005, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 25.186174, "energy": 18.562638, "activity_lines": [ 102.340668, 101.807092, 100.422334, 99.893463 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 96.239998, "volume": 1521600, "typical_volume": 1224345.0, "trend": 100.786667, "fair_value": 126.520833, "relative_strength": -24.268617, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -6.455553, "energy": 5.386787, "activity_lines": [ 100.583333, 100.974727, 100.113, 99.544817 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 105.279999, "volume": 1733300, "typical_volume": 1206840.0, "trend": 100.397333, "fair_value": 126.555641, "relative_strength": -15.760558, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 27.712607, "energy": 17.101536, "activity_lines": [ 102.004666, 101.73, 100.670667, 99.83471 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 111.080002, "volume": 1372100, "typical_volume": 1186850.0, "trend": 100.039333, "fair_value": 126.636667, "relative_strength": -13.015836, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.422567, "energy": 49.82, "activity_lines": [ 104.996, 103.414728, 101.753286, 100.523914 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }