{ "ticker": { "uuid": "71cd31b2-2df5-40e1-bb17-5132dc9ca734", "symbol": "ATOM", "name": "Atomera Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 74.337, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -22.761, "architecture_energy": 48.787, "architecture_maturity": 10.155, "architecture_confidence": 60.916, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.6, "rotation_up": 14.56, "upward_expansion": 25.13, "deceleration": 50.25, "rotation_down": 64.56, "downward_expansion": 52.47 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.43, 6.189636, 7.137857, 6.82729 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 5.48, "trend_reference": 6.102, "distance_from_trend": -0.101934, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 5.444968, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.006434, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 2.159293, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 1.132296, "excess_performance": 0.944842, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.101934, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.330378, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.006434, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.516277, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.021593, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.593343, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 1.132296, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.602322, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3866110, "relative_activity": 0.487437, "balance": 1.602322, "dry_up": 0.427996, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.337691, "annualized_volatility": 1.564129, "from_high_reference": -0.556814, "from_low_reference": 1.897172 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.102, "fair_value_reference": 5.444968, "structural_low": 2.32, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.121212, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.104122, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.877193, "worst_return": -0.378231, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.220924, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.240492, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.103448, "worst_return": -0.357853, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.439099, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.419608, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.040752, "worst_return": -0.575758, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.526646, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.463031, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.246454, "worst_return": -0.690855, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-04-26", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.006742, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.09434, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.417476, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.345898, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.244681, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.2251, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.194222, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.493097, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.158163, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.186957, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.314496, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.046512, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.271186, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 6.55, "volume": 818608, "typical_volume": 1779151.4, "trend": 7.473, "fair_value": 14.604615, "relative_strength": -30.25444, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 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8355900.25, "trend": 5.802333, "fair_value": 5.486763, "relative_strength": 8.576898, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -0.519576, "energy": 13.613309, "activity_lines": [ 6.667333, 7.526727, 7.65081, 6.948688 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.18, "volume": 2866775, "typical_volume": 8200776.6, "trend": 5.903, "fair_value": 5.468109, "relative_strength": 2.171212, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -5.631699, "energy": 20.028775, "activity_lines": [ 6.011333, 6.995455, 7.473857, 6.908538 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.16, "volume": 3131638, "typical_volume": 7954154.2, "trend": 5.996333, "fair_value": 5.453045, "relative_strength": 1.469172, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -25.592714, "energy": 39.473333, "activity_lines": [ 5.603333, 6.526364, 7.291952, 6.860602 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.48, "volume": 3866110, "typical_volume": 7931510.5, "trend": 6.102, "fair_value": 5.444968, "relative_strength": 2.159293, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -22.76126, "energy": 48.787095, "activity_lines": [ 5.43, 6.189636, 7.137857, 6.82729 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }