{ "ticker": { "uuid": "71ce2879-220f-48b6-9964-9fabb595a649", "symbol": "301446", "name": "Jiangxi First Hydraulic Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 65.064, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -60.384, "architecture_energy": 59.186, "architecture_maturity": 8.907, "architecture_confidence": 66.909, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.68, "rotation_up": 10.9, "upward_expansion": 11.54, "deceleration": 40.43, "rotation_down": 67.7, "downward_expansion": 84.88 }, "activity_lines": [ 33.885333, 35.207273, 38.121591, 39.029857 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 37.57, "trend_reference": 40.024898, "distance_from_trend": -0.061334, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 26.124275, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.438126, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 2.057187, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.195573, "excess_performance": -0.202972, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.061334, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.05883, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.438126, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.280868, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.020572, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.09112, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.195573, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.241262, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3775119, "relative_activity": 0.695674, "balance": 3.241262, "dry_up": 0.926263, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.135262, "annualized_volatility": 0.454414, "from_high_reference": -0.282484, "from_low_reference": 0.44589 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 40.024898, "fair_value_reference": 26.124275, "structural_low": 26.389999, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.027996, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.163148, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.136528, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.190978, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Established", 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69.405833, "activity_lines": [ 34.37, 38.092227, 39.721145, 40.155249 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 30.82, "volume": 7103958, "typical_volume": 5567818.9, "trend": 39.787055, "fair_value": 26.001473, "relative_strength": -12.872514, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.312223, "energy": 79.677575, "activity_lines": [ 32.528667, 36.342909, 38.834483, 39.575827 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 33.59, "volume": 5724080, "typical_volume": 5452378.9, "trend": 39.835486, "fair_value": 26.050432, "relative_strength": -3.755136, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.006587, "energy": 76.068083, "activity_lines": [ 32.396, 35.318, 38.270023, 39.176017 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 37.57, "volume": 3775119, "typical_volume": 5426561.85, "trend": 40.024898, "fair_value": 26.124275, "relative_strength": 2.057187, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.38422, "energy": 59.186057, "activity_lines": [ 33.885333, 35.207273, 38.121591, 39.029857 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }