{ "ticker": { "uuid": "71ce28df-db53-4294-aad1-7e914a57137c", "symbol": "002947", "name": "Suzhou Hengmingda Electronic Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 86.797, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -27.961, "architecture_energy": 60.691, "architecture_maturity": 10.795, "architecture_confidence": 70.818, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.59, "rotation_up": 14.05, "upward_expansion": 27.81, "deceleration": 50.51, "rotation_down": 70.89, "downward_expansion": 55.14 }, "activity_lines": [ 57.229999, 64.603636, 72.138809, 69.677372 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 59.259998, "trend_reference": 64.760451, "distance_from_trend": -0.084935, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 39.003854, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.519337, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 3.448911, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.296694, "excess_performance": 0.289294, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.084935, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.144095, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.519337, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.904038, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.034489, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.470007, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.296694, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.416702, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 37374747, "relative_activity": 0.783887, "balance": 0.416702, "dry_up": 0.851504, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.171863, "annualized_volatility": 0.638122, "from_high_reference": -0.435619, "from_low_reference": 0.796624 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 64.760451, "fair_value_reference": 39.003854, "structural_low": 43.525077, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.038917, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.011544, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.087067, "worst_return": -0.164902, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.023129, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.051087, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.014257, "worst_return": -0.060514, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.212445, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.310375, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.503055, "worst_return": -0.078164, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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"relative_strength": 2.682527, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -37.494974, "energy": 45.343308, "activity_lines": [ 63.11, 71.91, 75.295857, 70.791933 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 52.509998, "volume": 37510890, "typical_volume": 48063920.35, "trend": 64.50784, "fair_value": 38.749224, "relative_strength": -2.894379, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -40.804864, "energy": 62.602857, "activity_lines": [ 58.080666, 67.307818, 73.407007, 70.015943 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 59.259998, "volume": 37374747, "typical_volume": 47678730.1, "trend": 64.760451, "fair_value": 39.003854, "relative_strength": 3.448911, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -27.96148, "energy": 60.69076, "activity_lines": [ 57.229999, 64.603636, 72.138809, 69.677372 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }