{ "ticker": { "uuid": "71cf9e67-45b7-49de-b1e0-cb74f9cf6ae0", "symbol": "ARBE", "name": "Arbe Robotics Ltd", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -51.519, "architecture_energy": 29.849, "architecture_maturity": 21.748, "architecture_confidence": 94.314, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.95, "rotation_up": 16.67, "upward_expansion": 2.47, "deceleration": 52.0, "rotation_down": 52.53, "downward_expansion": 75.8 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.71034, 0.727689, 0.796283, 0.813632 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.768, "trend_reference": 0.885613, "distance_from_trend": -0.132804, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.668529, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.539714, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -42.780721, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.36, "excess_performance": -0.547454, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.132804, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.178979, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.539714, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.020241, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.427807, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.080994, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.36, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.62739, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5174219, "relative_activity": 0.502359, "balance": 0.62739, "dry_up": 0.793359, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.297495, "annualized_volatility": 0.970713, "from_high_reference": -0.733333, "from_low_reference": 0.391556 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.885613, "fair_value_reference": 1.668529, "structural_low": 0.5519, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": 0.038197, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.014613, "regime_survival": 0.708333, "best_return": 0.641791, "worst_return": -0.331463, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.026408, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.105115, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.444444, "worst_return": -0.466667, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.113695, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.307401, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.061453, "worst_return": -0.346917, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.592593, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.168831, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.248062, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.19883, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.259091, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-12-12", 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"date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.7257, "volume": 15973037, "typical_volume": 10853226.65, "trend": 0.935273, "fair_value": 1.710579, "relative_strength": -46.223195, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.231174, "energy": 47.946409, "activity_lines": [ 0.730987, 0.801905, 0.825168, 0.856467 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.6777, "volume": 3026851, "typical_volume": 10385089.7, "trend": 0.92353, "fair_value": 1.695821, "relative_strength": -48.052261, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.810728, "energy": 41.795227, "activity_lines": [ 0.7102, 0.765705, 0.812921, 0.83985 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.6545, "volume": 8511808, "typical_volume": 10400302.25, "trend": 0.905347, "fair_value": 1.681683, "relative_strength": -49.369094, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.155708, "energy": 40.868993, "activity_lines": [ 0.691287, 0.732056, 0.798951, 0.822493 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.768, "volume": 5174219, "typical_volume": 10299845.55, "trend": 0.885613, "fair_value": 1.668529, "relative_strength": -42.780721, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.519474, "energy": 29.849059, "activity_lines": [ 0.71034, 0.727689, 0.796283, 0.813632 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }