{ "ticker": { "uuid": "71dd7cf8-49a9-4260-b802-9f71778ffd19", "symbol": "VOO", "name": "Vanguard S&P 500 ETF", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 78.691, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 67.988, "architecture_energy": 43.197, "architecture_maturity": 45.223, "architecture_confidence": 75.16, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.11, "rotation_up": 42.63, "upward_expansion": 72.99, "deceleration": 90.62, "rotation_down": 28.55, "downward_expansion": 10.99 }, "activity_lines": [ 12012.026693, 12004.545224, 11882.213979, 11667.809182 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 12170.0, "trend_reference": 11413.500195, "distance_from_trend": 0.066281, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 9909.425712, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.228124, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 4.869882, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.11484, "excess_performance": 0.169507, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.066281, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.018848, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.228124, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.003225, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.048699, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.09889, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.11484, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.211728, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 132737, "relative_activity": 1.220932, "balance": 0.211728, "dry_up": 2.382725, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.023758, "annualized_volatility": 0.129116, "from_high_reference": -0.013151, "from_low_reference": 0.157835 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11413.500195, "fair_value_reference": 9909.425712, "structural_low": 10511.0, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.025594, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.026936, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.036885, "worst_return": -0.040471, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.050238, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.06581, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.170024, "worst_return": -0.069548, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.105557, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.192979, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.374391, "worst_return": -0.163276, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"close": 11856.0, "volume": 272890, "typical_volume": 101495.65, "trend": 11366.31875, "fair_value": 9844.189976, "relative_strength": 2.839284, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.24322, "energy": 50.691504, "activity_lines": [ 11993.772135, 11970.802202, 11791.432924, 11582.030179 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11915.0, "volume": 62289, "typical_volume": 103196.2, "trend": 11389.106706, "fair_value": 9875.733996, "relative_strength": 2.622981, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.338668, "energy": 38.362797, "activity_lines": [ 11964.505404, 11965.214382, 11827.131882, 11617.428969 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12170.0, "volume": 132737, "typical_volume": 108717.75, "trend": 11413.500195, "fair_value": 9909.425712, "relative_strength": 4.869882, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.98796, "energy": 43.197081, "activity_lines": [ 12012.026693, 12004.545224, 11882.213979, 11667.809182 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }