{ "ticker": { "uuid": "71e57154-c087-4e02-9b55-b1a2758815ba", "symbol": "SOGN", "name": "Sogn Sparebank", "exchange": "OSL", "country": "NO", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "OSEBX.OL", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 54.003, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 8.691, "architecture_energy": 9.88, "architecture_maturity": 32.144, "architecture_confidence": 88.182, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 54.72, "rotation_up": 26.89, "upward_expansion": 48.19, "deceleration": 80.49, "rotation_down": 24.86, "downward_expansion": 28.52 }, "activity_lines": [ 317.360002, 317.656364, 325.188486, 322.10413 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 319.0, "trend_reference": 311.768171, "distance_from_trend": 0.023196, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 218.425794, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.46045, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 0.359995, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.226824, "excess_performance": 0.10183, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.023196, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.070758, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.46045, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.321371, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.0036, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.157945, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.226824, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.257987, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 563, "relative_activity": 0.256253, "balance": 0.257987, "dry_up": 0.949683, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.046889, "annualized_volatility": 0.304611, "from_high_reference": -0.142473, "from_low_reference": 0.370309 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 311.768171, "fair_value_reference": 218.425794, "structural_low": 262.894481, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.032051, "positive_rate": 0.631579, "directional_follow_through": 0.631579, "median_excess_return": 0.021685, "regime_survival": 0.473684, "best_return": 0.173624, "worst_return": -0.094557, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.02531, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.003902, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.393994, "worst_return": -0.097122, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.004922, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.012686, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.303495, "worst_return": -0.041296, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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5.392302, "energy": 22.088105, "activity_lines": [ 316.079997, 322.726362, 328.188492, 319.306137 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 329.0, "volume": 914, "typical_volume": 1995.55, "trend": 306.584839, "fair_value": 214.873356, "relative_strength": 7.037156, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 8.846516, "energy": 19.583523, "activity_lines": [ 319.409998, 322.600908, 328.612296, 320.898592 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 308.0, "volume": 6186, "typical_volume": 2224.55, "trend": 307.995715, "fair_value": 216.01156, "relative_strength": -2.203365, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -6.997002, "energy": 19.420063, "activity_lines": [ 315.806665, 319.210908, 326.967829, 320.989893 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 316.100006, "volume": 683, "typical_volume": 2202.8, "trend": 309.83361, "fair_value": 217.217077, "relative_strength": -0.111357, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 7.660644, "energy": 12.185867, "activity_lines": [ 315.970001, 318.04, 326.00988, 321.51275 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 319.0, "volume": 563, "typical_volume": 2197.05, "trend": 311.768171, "fair_value": 218.425794, "relative_strength": 0.359995, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 8.690776, "energy": 9.879955, "activity_lines": [ 317.360002, 317.656364, 325.188486, 322.10413 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }