{ "ticker": { "uuid": "71e5811b-ab44-48ff-8fff-999752f15b05", "symbol": "PML", "name": "Pimco Municipal Income Fund II", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 62.937, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -46.808, "architecture_energy": 33.684, "architecture_maturity": 7.014, "architecture_confidence": 73.9, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 45.87, "rotation_up": 14.61, "upward_expansion": 7.19, "deceleration": 45.76, "rotation_down": 57.77, "downward_expansion": 71.19 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.386689, 7.441422, 7.447213, 7.453458 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 7.42, "trend_reference": 7.466718, "distance_from_trend": -0.006257, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 7.382976, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.005015, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.907251, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.016312, "excess_performance": -0.141937, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.006257, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002368, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.005015, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.017426, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.109073, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.031518, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.016312, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.648042, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1958019, "relative_activity": 0.942419, "balance": 1.648042, "dry_up": 0.905371, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.019472, "annualized_volatility": 0.105412, "from_high_reference": -0.04106, "from_low_reference": 0.1001 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.466718, "fair_value_reference": 7.382976, "structural_low": 7.132857, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": -0.022901, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.025949, "regime_survival": 0.722222, "best_return": 0.045404, "worst_return": -0.076707, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.114461, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.109382, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.00319, "worst_return": -0.185888, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.12765, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.13978, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": -0.018281, "worst_return": -0.287855, 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"direction": -25.039664, "energy": 10.766388, "activity_lines": [ 7.467435, 7.480472, 7.462217, 7.4673 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.3, "volume": 1970664, "typical_volume": 2059706.35, "trend": 7.466296, "fair_value": 7.384285, "relative_strength": -9.459286, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.164903, "energy": 29.701953, "activity_lines": [ 7.398717, 7.449484, 7.448449, 7.456445 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.42, "volume": 1958019, "typical_volume": 2077651.95, "trend": 7.466718, "fair_value": 7.382976, "relative_strength": -10.907251, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.807601, "energy": 33.683791, "activity_lines": [ 7.386689, 7.441422, 7.447213, 7.453458 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }