{ "ticker": { "uuid": "71ea45a3-eeef-48af-b26a-a7e130eabf94", "symbol": "HYPRO", "name": "HydrogenPro ASA", "exchange": "OSL", "country": "NO", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "OSEBX.OL", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -70.278, "architecture_energy": 80.826, "architecture_maturity": 30.0, "architecture_confidence": 86.579, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.68, "rotation_up": 10.23, "upward_expansion": 19.26, "deceleration": 37.44, "rotation_down": 79.51, "downward_expansion": 97.26 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.643867, 0.860436, 1.469014, 1.592462 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 0.59, "trend_reference": 1.716133, "distance_from_trend": -0.656204, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7.221981, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.918305, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -76.965564, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.691423, "excess_performance": -0.816416, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.656204, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.196278, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.918305, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.204888, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.769656, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.583227, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.691423, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.59361, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3868404, "relative_activity": 1.612597, "balance": 0.59361, "dry_up": 1.137951, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.865971, "annualized_volatility": 1.787688, "from_high_reference": -0.861176, "from_low_reference": 0.042403 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.716133, "fair_value_reference": 7.221981, "structural_low": 0.566, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 40, "median_return": -0.050344, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.067868, "regime_survival": 0.9, "best_return": 0.710526, "worst_return": -0.442602, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.130076, "positive_rate": 0.083333, "directional_follow_through": 0.916667, "median_excess_return": -0.150366, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 1.06275, "worst_return": -0.44825, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.40743, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.454284, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.144981, "worst_return": -0.515789, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-05-26", "end": "2023-06-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.246269, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-06-30", "end": "2023-12-22", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.123077, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-12-29", "end": "2024-01-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.114078, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-01-26", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.74116, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.1834, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": 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65.306512, "activity_lines": [ 1.0628, 1.7004, 1.917224, 1.901389 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.72, "volume": 1365923, "typical_volume": 2028503.3, "trend": 1.872467, "fair_value": 7.629801, "relative_strength": -73.124016, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.789925, "energy": 77.511031, "activity_lines": [ 0.849333, 1.441818, 1.806214, 1.823865 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.69, "volume": 1691321, "typical_volume": 2080666.05, "trend": 1.825633, "fair_value": 7.491917, "relative_strength": -74.235683, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.186611, "energy": 77.184943, "activity_lines": [ 0.734533, 1.211964, 1.695881, 1.747576 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.6, "volume": 3993515, "typical_volume": 2237462.25, "trend": 1.768633, "fair_value": 7.355058, "relative_strength": -77.088432, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.939829, "energy": 80.07435, "activity_lines": [ 0.6844, 1.014473, 1.580738, 1.668503 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.59, "volume": 3868404, "typical_volume": 2398865.7, "trend": 1.716133, "fair_value": 7.221981, "relative_strength": -76.965564, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.27758, "energy": 80.825971, "activity_lines": [ 0.643867, 0.860436, 1.469014, 1.592462 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }