{ "ticker": { "uuid": "71ec1113-6e21-4f3a-9167-d0f5835259ae", "symbol": "MFUS", "name": "PIMCO EQUITY SERIES RAFI DYNAMIC MULTI FACTOR US EQUITY ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 69.402, "architecture_energy": 46.802, "architecture_maturity": 59.504, "architecture_confidence": 84.255, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 30.5, "rotation_up": 40.93, "upward_expansion": 71.59, "deceleration": 94.23, "rotation_down": 29.17, "downward_expansion": 11.93 }, "activity_lines": [ 65.670433, 65.664208, 64.879374, 63.665912 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 66.5598, "trend_reference": 62.164787, "distance_from_trend": 0.070699, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 50.310508, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.32298, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 0.151403, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.096521, "excess_performance": -0.029104, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.070699, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.053079, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.32298, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.00712, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.001514, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.00057, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.096521, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.815789, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 75387, "relative_activity": 1.100466, "balance": 1.815789, "dry_up": 1.384064, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.022117, "annualized_volatility": 0.106928, "from_high_reference": -0.008295, "from_low_reference": 0.254272 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 62.164787, "fair_value_reference": 50.310508, "structural_low": 56.717905, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.016119, "positive_rate": 0.777778, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": 0.000287, "regime_survival": 0.222222, "best_return": 0.076506, "worst_return": -0.048368, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.010356, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.000193, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.152787, "worst_return": -0.085524, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.100095, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": 0.01413, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.151738, "worst_return": -0.061547, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.038455, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.097667, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.017559, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.017529, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.016845, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.00279, 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49.954622, "relative_strength": 2.898522, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.08413, "energy": 45.168475, "activity_lines": [ 65.408287, 65.472855, 64.329629, 63.131488 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 65.2046, "volume": 29506, "typical_volume": 67149.85, "trend": 61.880205, "fair_value": 50.128672, "relative_strength": 1.596941, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.490858, "energy": 39.374147, "activity_lines": [ 65.282653, 65.454111, 64.556666, 63.364002 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 66.5598, "volume": 75387, "typical_volume": 68504.6, "trend": 62.164787, "fair_value": 50.310508, "relative_strength": 0.151403, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.4023, "energy": 46.802353, "activity_lines": [ 65.670433, 65.664208, 64.879374, 63.665912 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }