{ "ticker": { "uuid": "71ec97ad-192f-49ea-91b4-5419eac0f153", "symbol": "LGAP", "name": "L&G Asia Pacific ex Japan Equity UCITS ETF", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 84.069, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 91.572, "architecture_energy": 94.012, "architecture_maturity": 13.662, "architecture_confidence": 63.025, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.46, "rotation_up": 88.27, "upward_expansion": 99.2, "deceleration": 39.01, "rotation_down": 8.36, "downward_expansion": 21.2 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.877333, 15.638509, 15.445029, 15.318202 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 16.208, "trend_reference": 15.136733, "distance_from_trend": 0.070773, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 12.982846, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.248417, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -4.781023, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.105141, "excess_performance": -0.065751, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.070773, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.037677, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.248417, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.035789, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.04781, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.005154, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.105141, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.563686, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5559, "relative_activity": 0.458932, "balance": 3.563686, "dry_up": 0.721256, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.016725, "annualized_volatility": 0.121233, "from_high_reference": -0.00197, "from_low_reference": 0.216269 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.136733, "fair_value_reference": 12.982846, "structural_low": 14.356, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 32, "median_return": -0.006198, "positive_rate": 0.4375, "directional_follow_through": 0.4375, "median_excess_return": -0.015248, "regime_survival": 0.65625, "best_return": 0.082692, "worst_return": -0.074726, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.02099, "positive_rate": 0.538462, "directional_follow_through": 0.538462, "median_excess_return": -0.030829, "regime_survival": 0.461538, "best_return": 0.088361, "worst_return": -0.075425, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.056236, "positive_rate": 0.875, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": -0.046669, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.112643, "worst_return": -0.102492, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.827905, "energy": 59.819516, "activity_lines": [ 15.3952, 15.299236, 15.230171, 15.139699 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 15.772, "volume": 13178, "typical_volume": 13681.1, "trend": 15.005667, "fair_value": 12.920026, "relative_strength": -4.256626, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 81.567784, "energy": 78.497477, "activity_lines": [ 15.541067, 15.394436, 15.290981, 15.193062 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 15.806, "volume": 9360, "typical_volume": 12804.15, "trend": 15.068667, "fair_value": 12.949487, "relative_strength": -4.546226, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 77.32374, "energy": 81.987492, "activity_lines": [ 15.6636, 15.485273, 15.351076, 15.244697 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 16.208, "volume": 5559, "typical_volume": 12112.9, "trend": 15.136733, "fair_value": 12.982846, "relative_strength": -4.781023, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 91.571603, "energy": 94.012196, "activity_lines": [ 15.877333, 15.638509, 15.445029, 15.318202 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }