{ "ticker": { "uuid": "71ee4d9c-a82d-4faa-85ac-001f37513b7f", "symbol": "PRL", "name": "Propel Holdings Inc.", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 80.523, "architecture_energy": 57.318, "architecture_maturity": 28.406, "architecture_confidence": 83.174, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.05, "rotation_up": 59.62, "upward_expansion": 79.5, "deceleration": 57.49, "rotation_down": 19.33, "downward_expansion": 8.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 26.024, 25.483818, 24.157789, 23.17986 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 28.360001, "trend_reference": 22.483199, "distance_from_trend": 0.261386, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 23.515899, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.205993, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 3.853422, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.156748, "excess_performance": 0.036327, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.261386, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.021515, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.205993, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.155495, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.038534, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.27539, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.156748, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.326977, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1884900, "relative_activity": 2.360329, "balance": 1.326977, "dry_up": 1.145916, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.076073, "annualized_volatility": 0.54676, "from_high_reference": -0.186693, "from_low_reference": 0.66367 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 22.483199, "fair_value_reference": 23.515899, "structural_low": 17.046654, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.007109, "positive_rate": 0.526316, "directional_follow_through": 0.526316, "median_excess_return": -0.006519, "regime_survival": 0.789474, "best_return": 0.463461, "worst_return": -0.306847, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.052292, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.042406, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.616348, "worst_return": -0.149383, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.467857, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.371629, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.901235, "worst_return": -0.028503, "sufficient": false }, { 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"rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.105304, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.45928, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.017051, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.023936, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.238176, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "New", 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"fair_value": 23.169459, "relative_strength": -8.008137, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.109404, "energy": 69.115275, "activity_lines": [ 25.371333, 24.442363, 23.072773, 22.500296 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 24.49, "volume": 538700, "typical_volume": 873875.0, "trend": 22.305332, "fair_value": 23.27758, "relative_strength": -10.071816, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.918698, "energy": 63.175169, "activity_lines": [ 25.153333, 24.613273, 23.333362, 22.640785 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 24.629999, "volume": 433400, "typical_volume": 787000.0, "trend": 22.329, "fair_value": 23.387535, "relative_strength": -7.957482, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.789212, "energy": 42.082091, "activity_lines": [ 25.010666, 24.743091, 23.585165, 22.790763 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 28.360001, "volume": 1884900, "typical_volume": 798575.0, "trend": 22.483199, "fair_value": 23.515899, "relative_strength": 3.853422, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 80.52345, "energy": 57.318402, "activity_lines": [ 26.024, 25.483818, 24.157789, 23.17986 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }