{ "ticker": { "uuid": "71f557db-de83-4f29-a56d-7c76e3e52162", "symbol": "PYPL", "name": "PayPal Holdings, Inc.", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Emerging rotation", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 80.737, "architecture_energy": 93.149, "architecture_maturity": 25.141, "architecture_confidence": 69.943, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.63, "rotation_up": 84.62, "upward_expansion": 97.67, "deceleration": 41.83, "rotation_down": 8.0, "downward_expansion": 22.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 981.044002, 908.940183, 853.59783, 836.394809 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 1005.01001, "trend_reference": 827.674766, "distance_from_trend": 0.214257, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1179.294097, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.147787, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -1.305795, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.450334, "excess_performance": 0.505, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.214257, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.094829, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.147787, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.204701, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.013058, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.368229, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.450334, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 9.764092, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 17180, "relative_activity": 0.726426, "balance": 9.764092, "dry_up": 2.231972, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.046, "annualized_volatility": 0.428353, "from_high_reference": -0.310587, "from_low_reference": 0.513146 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 827.674766, "fair_value_reference": 1179.294097, "structural_low": 664.18587, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.084313, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.052661, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 9.2e-05, "worst_return": -0.168718, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.154035, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.218134, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.154035, "worst_return": -0.154035, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.301115, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.41102, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.301115, "worst_return": -0.301115, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 61.953677, "energy": 79.254224, "activity_lines": [ 909.093331, 842.893625, 818.716289, 814.652554 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 991.0, "volume": 17859, "typical_volume": 23087.15, "trend": 828.635179, "fair_value": 1179.568316, "relative_strength": -3.492811, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 57.115385, "energy": 84.492836, "activity_lines": [ 949.993998, 876.709134, 835.92563, 825.015788 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1005.01001, "volume": 17180, "typical_volume": 23650.05, "trend": 827.674766, "fair_value": 1179.294097, "relative_strength": -1.305795, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": 80.737383, "energy": 93.149447, "activity_lines": [ 981.044002, 908.940183, 853.59783, 836.394809 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }