{ "ticker": { "uuid": "71f5acf7-03ae-4829-90f5-c78110b79e1f", "symbol": "5438", "name": "Teco Image Systems Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -57.594, "architecture_energy": 63.732, "architecture_maturity": 11.613, "architecture_confidence": 82.244, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.11, "rotation_up": 12.42, "upward_expansion": 16.16, "deceleration": 34.83, "rotation_down": 68.82, "downward_expansion": 87.16 }, "activity_lines": [ 17.033333, 17.625275, 17.976203, 18.302227 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 17.15, "trend_reference": 18.953702, "distance_from_trend": -0.095164, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 19.690453, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.12902, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -41.864331, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.175209, "excess_performance": -0.616581, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.095164, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.048851, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.12902, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.033898, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.418643, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.007001, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.175209, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.626164, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 360010, "relative_activity": 0.580032, "balance": 1.626164, "dry_up": 0.709408, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.080617, "annualized_volatility": 0.264226, "from_high_reference": -0.438468, "from_low_reference": 0.12459 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18.953702, "fair_value_reference": 19.690453, "structural_low": 15.25, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": 0.003344, "positive_rate": 0.521739, "directional_follow_through": 0.478261, "median_excess_return": -0.017079, "regime_survival": 0.782609, "best_return": 0.428211, "worst_return": -0.186975, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.00652, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.071272, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 1.14759, "worst_return": -0.165966, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.160239, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.077684, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.563253, "worst_return": -0.120588, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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11.418092, "activity_lines": [ 18.892674, 18.678328, 18.598757, 19.008381 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 18.200001, "volume": 584056, "typical_volume": 677940.65, "trend": 19.565233, "fair_value": 19.725205, "relative_strength": -36.911168, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -25.666549, "energy": 13.503699, "activity_lines": [ 18.739341, 18.616428, 18.537726, 18.914932 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 17.549999, "volume": 330288, "typical_volume": 645177.8, "trend": 19.469934, "fair_value": 19.71933, "relative_strength": -39.926203, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.505104, "energy": 20.736443, "activity_lines": [ 18.353333, 18.445951, 18.428739, 18.784917 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 16.35, "volume": 657585, "typical_volume": 632765.8, "trend": 19.267405, "fair_value": 19.7046, "relative_strength": -42.707555, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.085052, "energy": 54.926518, "activity_lines": [ 17.626667, 18.062125, 18.222739, 18.58363 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 16.85, "volume": 413356, "typical_volume": 622514.4, "trend": 19.094349, "fair_value": 19.694529, "relative_strength": -41.569209, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.48094, "energy": 63.436671, "activity_lines": [ 17.19, 17.802845, 18.079341, 18.427669 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 17.15, "volume": 360010, "typical_volume": 620672.15, "trend": 18.953702, "fair_value": 19.690453, "relative_strength": -41.864331, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.59356, "energy": 63.732198, "activity_lines": [ 17.033333, 17.625275, 17.976203, 18.302227 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }