{ "ticker": { "uuid": "72028836-5d38-4ac2-aa9e-160712c7092b", "symbol": "200012", "name": "CSG Holding Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -41.938, "architecture_energy": 28.543, "architecture_maturity": 68.989, "architecture_confidence": 75.337, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.18, "rotation_up": 17.08, "upward_expansion": 10.78, "deceleration": 54.36, "rotation_down": 51.47, "downward_expansion": 67.45 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.438774, 1.461463, 1.457037, 1.493752 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 1.42, "trend_reference": 1.550424, "distance_from_trend": -0.084122, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.933188, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.265462, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -17.766423, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.164706, "excess_performance": -0.172106, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.084122, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.063377, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.265462, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.024172, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.177664, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.161874, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.164706, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.338005, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4597528, "relative_activity": 0.678079, "balance": 1.338005, "dry_up": 0.86221, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.08615, "annualized_volatility": 0.357031, "from_high_reference": -0.264249, "from_low_reference": 0.145161 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.550424, "fair_value_reference": 1.933188, "structural_low": 1.24, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 34, "median_return": -0.01303, "positive_rate": 0.411765, "directional_follow_through": 0.588235, "median_excess_return": 0.002694, "regime_survival": 0.852941, "best_return": 0.14581, "worst_return": -0.101266, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.001076, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.012994, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.112715, "worst_return": -0.125628, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.048583, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.013701, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.237861, "worst_return": -0.198963, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.375922, "energy": 24.597938, "activity_lines": [ 1.481, 1.461793, 1.472933, 1.517297 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.44, "volume": 6436153, "typical_volume": 6731186.8, "trend": 1.568091, "fair_value": 1.942174, "relative_strength": -15.111207, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.484101, "energy": 17.004053, "activity_lines": [ 1.462819, 1.462107, 1.465872, 1.508474 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.48, "volume": 6280613, "typical_volume": 6707308.1, "trend": 1.560091, "fair_value": 1.938066, "relative_strength": -10.667615, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.829197, "energy": 22.90534, "activity_lines": [ 1.457971, 1.46733, 1.463811, 1.502791 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.42, "volume": 4597528, "typical_volume": 6780223.35, "trend": 1.550424, "fair_value": 1.933188, "relative_strength": -17.766423, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.938344, "energy": 28.542505, "activity_lines": [ 1.438774, 1.461463, 1.457037, 1.493752 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }