{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7205a1a8-02e8-4657-8256-fc55ceb1b8f3", "symbol": "1413", "name": "Hung Chou Fiber Ind. Co., Ltd", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 74.52, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -25.032, "architecture_energy": 12.43, "architecture_maturity": 21.868, "architecture_confidence": 75.69, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 57.91, "rotation_up": 24.02, "upward_expansion": 28.25, "deceleration": 47.18, "rotation_down": 37.7, "downward_expansion": 48.25 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.567333, 9.563455, 9.54681, 9.594151 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 9.44, "trend_reference": 9.672, "distance_from_trend": -0.023987, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 10.062436, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.061857, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -33.873564, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.036735, "excess_performance": -0.478107, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.023987, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.016507, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.061857, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.004374, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.338736, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.072458, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.036735, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.448391, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 73914, "relative_activity": 0.32322, "balance": 0.448391, "dry_up": 2.891482, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.065271, "annualized_volatility": 0.187551, "from_high_reference": -0.203376, "from_low_reference": 0.060674 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.672, "fair_value_reference": 10.062436, "structural_low": 8.9, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.014019, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.363636, "median_excess_return": -0.015487, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.048806, "worst_return": -0.101695, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.051975, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.018709, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.08, "worst_return": -0.111588, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.106137, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.02443, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.195, "worst_return": -0.156965, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-05-03", "end": "2024-07-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.049774, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-07-19", "end": "2024-08-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.076329, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-08-23", "end": "2024-09-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.045786, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.037, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.044467, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2025-01-03", 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"relative_strength": -33.069631, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.742239, "energy": 25.429349, "activity_lines": [ 9.453333, 9.454727, 9.523429, 9.60486 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.3, "volume": 510031, "typical_volume": 150729.45, "trend": 9.727, "fair_value": 10.051987, "relative_strength": -27.976231, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 27.553061, "energy": 21.048379, "activity_lines": [ 9.74, 9.609455, 9.590571, 9.642473 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.55, "volume": 1515306, "typical_volume": 208955.4, "trend": 9.712, "fair_value": 10.055256, "relative_strength": -31.282619, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 0.378152, "energy": 7.760869, "activity_lines": [ 9.719333, 9.612364, 9.583905, 9.631054 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.39, "volume": 545644, "typical_volume": 230843.95, "trend": 9.69, "fair_value": 10.058654, "relative_strength": -33.002337, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -24.90157, "energy": 14.103358, "activity_lines": [ 9.629333, 9.583818, 9.56219, 9.61028 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 9.44, "volume": 73914, "typical_volume": 228679.9, "trend": 9.672, "fair_value": 10.062436, "relative_strength": -33.873564, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -25.032003, "energy": 12.43031, "activity_lines": [ 9.567333, 9.563455, 9.54681, 9.594151 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }