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Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 70.814, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 63.178, "architecture_energy": 62.56, "architecture_maturity": 9.477, "architecture_confidence": 64.512, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.87, "rotation_up": 74.05, "upward_expansion": 87.77, "deceleration": 43.7, "rotation_down": 8.68, "downward_expansion": 12.1 }, "activity_lines": [ 252.666668, 248.414545, 245.098286, 244.949695 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 253.600006, "trend_reference": 243.037071, "distance_from_trend": 0.043462, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 228.448367, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.110098, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.423933, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.072413, "excess_performance": 0.007773, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.043462, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.001439, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.110098, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.011989, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.034239, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.014366, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.072413, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.026149, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 632894, "relative_activity": 0.981817, "balance": 1.026149, "dry_up": 0.969616, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.035671, "annualized_volatility": 0.178837, "from_high_reference": -0.052676, "from_low_reference": 0.143294 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 243.037071, "fair_value_reference": 228.448367, 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688749.15, "trend": 242.250377, "fair_value": 226.953297, "relative_strength": 2.517406, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 39.578325, "energy": 36.453716, "activity_lines": [ 247.906665, 241.723634, 243.052172, 242.982115 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 253.199997, "volume": 565408, "typical_volume": 678641.8, "trend": 242.223952, "fair_value": 227.443751, "relative_strength": 0.784129, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.117921, "energy": 47.814468, "activity_lines": [ 250.853332, 244.334543, 243.859011, 243.688542 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 250.6, "volume": 657528, "typical_volume": 670752.3, "trend": 242.428192, "fair_value": 227.949048, "relative_strength": -2.15563, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.065274, "energy": 58.640999, "activity_lines": [ 251.666666, 246.185453, 244.340406, 244.228932 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 253.600006, "volume": 632894, "typical_volume": 644615.25, "trend": 243.037071, "fair_value": 228.448367, "relative_strength": -3.423933, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.178264, "energy": 62.560161, "activity_lines": [ 252.666668, 248.414545, 245.098286, 244.949695 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }