{ "ticker": { "uuid": "720b818a-a4de-41e3-bfa4-34a63f9f08e0", "symbol": "000809", "name": "Liaoning HeZhan Energy Group Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 63.696, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -58.63, "architecture_energy": 44.715, "architecture_maturity": 8.699, "architecture_confidence": 76.689, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.69, "rotation_up": 13.86, "upward_expansion": 5.91, "deceleration": 47.51, "rotation_down": 62.09, "downward_expansion": 79.25 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.15, 3.228727, 3.470381, 3.534151 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 3.36, "trend_reference": 3.569667, "distance_from_trend": -0.058736, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.006026, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.117755, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -5.284128, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.017544, "excess_performance": -0.024944, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.058736, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.007967, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.117755, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.198936, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.052841, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.031811, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.017544, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.518792, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 66627992, "relative_activity": 0.523693, "balance": 1.518792, "dry_up": 0.597281, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.126145, "annualized_volatility": 0.50921, "from_high_reference": -0.292632, "from_low_reference": 0.226277 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.569667, "fair_value_reference": 3.006026, "structural_low": 2.74, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.016372, "positive_rate": 0.5625, "directional_follow_through": 0.4375, "median_excess_return": -0.032315, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.331776, "worst_return": -0.289902, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.133093, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.099586, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.476636, "worst_return": -0.284866, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.15566, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.008664, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.509346, "worst_return": -0.37092, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.101639, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.016026, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.071651, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.023411, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.155015, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 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3.841636, 3.788667, 3.721849 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 3.22, "volume": 15552828, "typical_volume": 138340442.45, "trend": 3.62, "fair_value": 3.037692, "relative_strength": -18.608842, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -27.390113, "energy": 26.05415, "activity_lines": [ 3.525333, 3.727273, 3.740571, 3.695591 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 3.06, "volume": 72076167, "typical_volume": 139293794.45, "trend": 3.609, "fair_value": 3.031923, "relative_strength": -19.248935, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -35.662707, "energy": 43.432844, "activity_lines": [ 3.315333, 3.589818, 3.678286, 3.659462 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.99, "volume": 82076817, "typical_volume": 140710995.3, "trend": 3.599, "fair_value": 3.024872, "relative_strength": -12.88816, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -43.803201, "energy": 64.37986, "activity_lines": [ 3.143333, 3.452545, 3.611, 3.619527 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.91, "volume": 72694598, "typical_volume": 138823997.7, "trend": 3.585333, "fair_value": 3.01641, "relative_strength": -15.227976, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.017402, "energy": 76.51895, "activity_lines": [ 3.029333, 3.319273, 3.538524, 3.575075 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.17, "volume": 82562022, "typical_volume": 131528955.2, "trend": 3.579, "fair_value": 3.010256, "relative_strength": -6.087185, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.964268, "energy": 68.554259, "activity_lines": [ 3.053333, 3.249818, 3.493952, 3.54828 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.36, "volume": 66627992, "typical_volume": 127227240.4, "trend": 3.569667, "fair_value": 3.006026, "relative_strength": -5.284128, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.630427, "energy": 44.715309, "activity_lines": [ 3.15, 3.228727, 3.470381, 3.534151 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }