{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7210aca3-0578-4bf3-a952-ad3ba8ce569b", "symbol": "EFU", "name": "PROSHARES ULTRASHORT MSCI EAFE", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -80.754, "architecture_energy": 70.03, "architecture_maturity": 44.883, "architecture_confidence": 92.62, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.95, "rotation_up": 20.08, "upward_expansion": 14.27, "deceleration": 39.37, "rotation_down": 65.17, "downward_expansion": 89.93 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.05204, 7.179272, 7.365985, 7.590469 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 6.695, "trend_reference": 7.824535, "distance_from_trend": -0.144358, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 12.391246, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.459699, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -30.611998, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.15337, "excess_performance": -0.278995, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.144358, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.076401, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.459699, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.029572, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.30612, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.011714, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.15337, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.049715, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 31493, "relative_activity": 0.474411, "balance": 1.049715, "dry_up": 0.369012, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.060022, "annualized_volatility": 0.37926, "from_high_reference": -0.35498, "from_low_reference": 0.000747 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.824535, "fair_value_reference": 12.391246, "structural_low": 6.69, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 40, "median_return": -0.02431, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.046231, "regime_survival": 0.85, "best_return": 0.170455, "worst_return": -0.156614, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.049877, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.121432, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.135797, "worst_return": -0.176556, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.14333, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.288546, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.087254, "worst_return": -0.218213, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"activity_lines": [ 7.335907, 7.363361, 7.540124, 7.724544 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.0564, "volume": 18252, "typical_volume": 73722.35, "trend": 7.885226, "fair_value": 12.457173, "relative_strength": -25.18007, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.13594, "energy": 48.719067, "activity_lines": [ 7.240753, 7.300117, 7.46568, 7.667258 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.695, "volume": 31493, "typical_volume": 66383.35, "trend": 7.824535, "fair_value": 12.391246, "relative_strength": -30.611998, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.754442, "energy": 70.030357, "activity_lines": [ 7.05204, 7.179272, 7.365985, 7.590469 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }