{ "ticker": { "uuid": "721101cc-d874-4797-ae4c-f49dc87c8b9a", "symbol": "600165", "name": "Ningxia Zhongke Biotechnology Co., Ltd", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.506, "architecture_energy": 74.219, "architecture_maturity": 60.0, "architecture_confidence": 88.024, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.61, "rotation_up": 13.34, "upward_expansion": 16.33, "deceleration": 41.58, "rotation_down": 70.94, "downward_expansion": 89.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.345333, 2.473636, 2.716905, 2.935247 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 2.42, "trend_reference": 3.230333, "distance_from_trend": -0.250851, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.223462, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.249254, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -30.834075, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.354667, "excess_performance": -0.311463, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.250851, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.123224, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.249254, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.220835, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.308341, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.042209, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.354667, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.585229, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 30256350, "relative_activity": 1.012745, "balance": 0.585229, "dry_up": 1.2574, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.118245, "annualized_volatility": 0.419884, "from_high_reference": -0.469298, "from_low_reference": 0.125581 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.230333, "fair_value_reference": 3.223462, "structural_low": 2.15, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 32, "median_return": -0.05042, "positive_rate": 0.3125, "directional_follow_through": 0.6875, "median_excess_return": -0.035726, "regime_survival": 0.84375, "best_return": 0.859155, "worst_return": -0.292359, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.121134, "positive_rate": 0.272727, "directional_follow_through": 0.727273, "median_excess_return": -0.131296, "regime_survival": 0.818182, "best_return": 0.372549, "worst_return": -0.491694, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.117718, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.102318, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.45098, "worst_return": -0.567059, "sufficient": true }, { 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3.081048, 3.264473 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 2.71, "volume": 35216234, "typical_volume": 28035344.1, "trend": 3.443333, "fair_value": 3.277756, "relative_strength": -27.648812, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.297279, "energy": 60.067577, "activity_lines": [ 2.741333, 2.812727, 3.026429, 3.21443 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.21, "volume": 48724126, "typical_volume": 28986797.0, "trend": 3.412667, "fair_value": 3.265449, "relative_strength": -36.41744, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -89.612543, "energy": 72.123542, "activity_lines": [ 2.563333, 2.688545, 2.929905, 3.13486 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.21, "volume": 32650384, "typical_volume": 29208623.7, "trend": 3.353333, "fair_value": 3.250128, "relative_strength": -36.339368, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -84.290269, "energy": 75.760962, "activity_lines": [ 2.426667, 2.583273, 2.841381, 3.057269 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.33, "volume": 38631314, "typical_volume": 29905465.2, "trend": 3.288, "fair_value": 3.236218, "relative_strength": -32.353852, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.896428, "energy": 77.973168, "activity_lines": [ 2.362, 2.513455, 2.771667, 2.991247 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.42, "volume": 30256350, "typical_volume": 29875577.65, "trend": 3.230333, "fair_value": 3.223462, "relative_strength": -30.834075, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.506059, "energy": 74.219399, "activity_lines": [ 2.345333, 2.473636, 2.716905, 2.935247 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }