{ "ticker": { "uuid": "72136925-e8f6-4c31-a56e-bb6cd490f318", "symbol": "4291", "name": "National Company for Learning and Education", "exchange": "SAU", "country": "SA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TASI.SR", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 93.915, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 78.299, "architecture_energy": 46.084, "architecture_maturity": 37.258, "architecture_confidence": 65.538, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 43.48, "rotation_up": 47.65, "upward_expansion": 71.88, "deceleration": 75.56, "rotation_down": 21.35, "downward_expansion": 5.55 }, "activity_lines": [ 133.166666, 132.098181, 127.838571, 125.097849 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 145.199997, "trend_reference": 123.326667, "distance_from_trend": 0.177361, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 149.463336, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.028524, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 8.40096, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.126455, "excess_performance": 0.158284, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.177361, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.039103, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.028524, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.164774, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.08401, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.249377, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.126455, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.820764, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 562275, "relative_activity": 3.724488, "balance": 3.820764, "dry_up": 1.339584, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.05462, "annualized_volatility": 0.339393, "from_high_reference": -0.192469, "from_low_reference": 0.372401 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 123.326667, "fair_value_reference": 149.463336, "structural_low": 105.800003, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.011804, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.017839, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.282722, "worst_return": -0.050932, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.0356, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.032057, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.259552, "worst_return": -0.153049, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.436417, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.409928, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.449275, "worst_return": -0.173573, "sufficient": false 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"relative_strength": -3.626208, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 37.016997, "energy": 66.725751, "activity_lines": [ 132.306666, 128.698181, 124.064761, 123.060779 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 128.199997, "volume": 61284, "typical_volume": 126265.85, "trend": 123.914282, "fair_value": 148.88706, "relative_strength": -4.365993, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 32.350622, "energy": 46.869085, "activity_lines": [ 130.799999, 129.178181, 124.797618, 123.310814 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 125.699997, "volume": 63963, "typical_volume": 125460.0, "trend": 123.276667, "fair_value": 149.015851, "relative_strength": -6.414694, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.622968, "energy": 30.593371, "activity_lines": [ 128.706665, 129.039998, 125.219999, 123.426021 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 126.800003, "volume": 121410, "typical_volume": 124942.85, "trend": 122.81, "fair_value": 149.161541, "relative_strength": -3.245283, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.491513, "energy": 21.168547, "activity_lines": [ 127.666667, 128.994545, 125.692857, 123.653333 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 145.199997, "volume": 562275, "typical_volume": 150967.05, "trend": 123.326667, "fair_value": 149.463336, "relative_strength": 8.40096, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 78.298533, "energy": 46.084426, "activity_lines": [ 133.166666, 132.098181, 127.838571, 125.097849 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }