{ "ticker": { "uuid": "72140fe7-5a62-4a55-8ef0-4cb9cf940bf5", "symbol": "QCOC", "name": "FT Vest Nasdaq-100 Conservative Buffer ETF - October", "exchange": "CBOE", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 58.004, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 84.27, "architecture_energy": 65.87, "architecture_maturity": 70.463, "architecture_confidence": 71.654, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.55, "rotation_up": 55.95, "upward_expansion": 84.65, "deceleration": 67.14, "rotation_down": 28.96, "downward_expansion": 11.31 }, "activity_lines": [ 23.930327, 23.872611, 23.743394, 23.454928 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 24.175, "trend_reference": 23.10721, "distance_from_trend": 0.04621, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 21.645236, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.116874, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -5.034296, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.077034, "excess_performance": -0.048591, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.04621, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.022064, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.116874, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.006161, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.050343, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.005422, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.077034, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.154901, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 12365, "relative_activity": 0.172114, "balance": 2.154901, "dry_up": 0.416282, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.009482, "annualized_volatility": 0.066687, "from_high_reference": 0.0, "from_low_reference": 0.122852 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 23.10721, "fair_value_reference": 21.645236, "structural_low": 21.61, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.000679, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.012956, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.022232, "worst_return": -0.008783, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.019743, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.019505, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.019743, "worst_return": 0.019743, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.033561, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-10-25", "close": 19.76, "volume": 991425, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-11-01", "close": 19.73, "volume": 555092, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, 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expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.731775, "energy": 55.128342, "activity_lines": [ 23.791607, 23.793793, 23.611469, 23.328254 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 23.8518, "volume": 31340, "typical_volume": 72509.75, "trend": 23.056043, "fair_value": 21.618034, "relative_strength": -3.187597, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.002816, "energy": 55.828004, "activity_lines": [ 23.81216, 23.804791, 23.665966, 23.382737 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 24.175, "volume": 12365, "typical_volume": 71841.9, "trend": 23.10721, "fair_value": 21.645236, "relative_strength": -5.034296, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 84.270058, "energy": 65.869813, "activity_lines": [ 23.930327, 23.872611, 23.743394, 23.454928 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }