{ "ticker": { "uuid": "72141f3f-e4d8-42da-aeb3-3e27bcda5a56", "symbol": "SOJA3", "name": "Boa Safra Sementes S.A.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -77.65, "architecture_energy": 67.992, "architecture_maturity": 72.744, "architecture_confidence": 87.639, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.26, "rotation_up": 18.99, "upward_expansion": 11.6, "deceleration": 52.6, "rotation_down": 67.5, "downward_expansion": 84.93 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.591333, 5.781636, 6.081857, 6.46643 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 5.37, "trend_reference": 7.037667, "distance_from_trend": -0.236963, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 10.533175, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.490182, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -35.739984, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.344322, "excess_performance": -0.287274, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.236963, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.111052, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.490182, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.130443, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.3574, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 2.4e-05, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.344322, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.121383, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3004900, "relative_activity": 0.744783, "balance": 0.121383, "dry_up": 0.852972, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.076637, "annualized_volatility": 0.353083, "from_high_reference": -0.486408, "from_low_reference": 0.009398 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.037667, "fair_value_reference": 10.533175, "structural_low": 5.32, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": -0.026073, "positive_rate": 0.409091, "directional_follow_through": 0.590909, "median_excess_return": -0.024232, "regime_survival": 0.818182, "best_return": 0.154326, "worst_return": -0.146825, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.105143, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.123182, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.238542, "worst_return": -0.21075, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.138011, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.173901, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.140979, "worst_return": -0.257538, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.012311, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.109005, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.011607, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.08056, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.023166, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.037938, "active": 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.515849, "energy": 65.440893, "activity_lines": [ 6.088, 6.135091, 6.497, 6.901054 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 6.04, "volume": 2303700, "typical_volume": 4181800.0, "trend": 7.373333, "fair_value": 10.619851, "relative_strength": -31.540163, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.022484, "energy": 59.960684, "activity_lines": [ 6.078, 6.099091, 6.416667, 6.809591 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.58, "volume": 3347100, "typical_volume": 4043410.0, "trend": 7.26, "fair_value": 10.594545, "relative_strength": -35.894568, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -83.229119, "energy": 66.748349, "activity_lines": [ 5.922, 5.995636, 6.302, 6.693892 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.51, "volume": 5109900, "typical_volume": 4061565.0, "trend": 7.145667, "fair_value": 10.565784, "relative_strength": -37.1135, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.49804, "energy": 65.589276, "activity_lines": [ 5.762667, 5.893818, 6.192524, 6.580989 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.37, "volume": 3004900, "typical_volume": 4034600.0, "trend": 7.037667, "fair_value": 10.533175, "relative_strength": -35.739984, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.649525, "energy": 67.991689, "activity_lines": [ 5.591333, 5.781636, 6.081857, 6.46643 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }