{ "ticker": { "uuid": "72150daf-7c32-48a4-9aff-3df383a2d412", "symbol": "BTP2S", "name": "Amundi Italy BTP Daily (-2x) Inverse UCITS ETF Acc", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 53.466, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 55.429, "architecture_energy": 56.118, "architecture_maturity": 3.171, "architecture_confidence": 62.216, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.93, "rotation_up": 67.69, "upward_expansion": 80.79, "deceleration": 51.5, "rotation_down": 11.12, "downward_expansion": 12.12 }, "activity_lines": [ 18.089734, 17.903055, 17.839353, 17.80794 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 17.940001, "trend_reference": 17.681133, "distance_from_trend": 0.014641, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 18.224359, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.015603, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -12.537881, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.045942, "excess_performance": -0.12495, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.014641, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.008717, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.015603, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.021595, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.125379, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.012644, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.045942, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.804435, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 10696, "relative_activity": 0.435058, "balance": 2.804435, "dry_up": 0.763212, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.02023, "annualized_volatility": 0.14156, "from_high_reference": -0.048881, "from_low_reference": 0.076831 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.681133, "fair_value_reference": 18.224359, "structural_low": 16.66, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": -0.021761, "positive_rate": 0.294118, "directional_follow_through": 0.294118, "median_excess_return": -0.004848, "regime_survival": 0.647059, "best_return": 0.136194, "worst_return": -0.113711, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.038123, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.074981, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.194107, "worst_return": -0.161969, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.075318, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.153441, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.300078, "worst_return": -0.161427, 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17.672909, 17.763533, 17.709239 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 18.224001, "volume": 16416, "typical_volume": 27116.5, "trend": 17.634333, "fair_value": 18.247692, "relative_strength": -8.666858, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 51.856872, "energy": 34.280451, "activity_lines": [ 17.921867, 17.767237, 17.799638, 17.749006 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 18.266001, "volume": 32398, "typical_volume": 25011.0, "trend": 17.6582, "fair_value": 18.237346, "relative_strength": -8.703848, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.632465, "energy": 58.093422, "activity_lines": [ 18.093867, 17.869164, 17.835733, 17.789759 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 17.940001, "volume": 10696, "typical_volume": 24585.25, "trend": 17.681133, "fair_value": 18.224359, "relative_strength": -12.537881, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.428613, "energy": 56.118406, "activity_lines": [ 18.089734, 17.903055, 17.839353, 17.80794 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }