{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7215707b-d626-421e-8934-5d6b269a49f1", "symbol": "300576", "name": "Shenzhen RongDa Photosensitive Science & Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 85.82, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.271, "architecture_energy": 59.011, "architecture_maturity": 14.788, "architecture_confidence": 68.393, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 33.23, "rotation_up": 8.06, "upward_expansion": 8.55, "deceleration": 45.23, "rotation_down": 75.26, "downward_expansion": 81.88 }, "activity_lines": [ 29.251334, 34.807808, 36.938394, 37.157552 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 31.99, "trend_reference": 38.076763, "distance_from_trend": -0.159855, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 34.056658, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.060683, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -18.641197, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.218994, "excess_performance": -0.226394, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.159855, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.00452, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.060683, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.097991, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.186412, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.066161, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.218994, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.891217, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 148120467, "relative_activity": 1.606011, "balance": 0.891217, "dry_up": 1.404909, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.221869, "annualized_volatility": 0.75792, "from_high_reference": -0.407593, "from_low_reference": 0.337934 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 38.076763, "fair_value_reference": 34.056658, "structural_low": 23.91, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": -0.005803, "positive_rate": 0.45, "directional_follow_through": 0.55, "median_excess_return": -0.006498, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.198761, "worst_return": -0.185811, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.015729, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.0166, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 1.121065, "worst_return": -0.11972, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.151823, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.106529, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.087702, "worst_return": -0.189946, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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47.437296, 44.416916, 40.512082, 39.915325 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 39.810001, "volume": 103081150, "typical_volume": 74213860.5, "trend": 39.63943, "fair_value": 34.077982, "relative_strength": -7.174061, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.483998, "energy": 52.449511, "activity_lines": [ 45.380667, 44.063615, 40.604021, 39.926932 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 29.120001, "volume": 99916826, "typical_volume": 76916780.25, "trend": 39.203764, "fair_value": 34.063043, "relative_strength": -24.828518, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "up", "direction": 4.023914, "energy": 8.042138, "activity_lines": [ 39.634001, 41.654236, 39.682483, 39.248259 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 26.83, "volume": 130520981, "typical_volume": 80963219.5, "trend": 38.796763, "fair_value": 34.037941, "relative_strength": -30.385502, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -37.947884, "energy": 38.541181, "activity_lines": [ 34.196001, 38.923284, 38.60485, 38.449952 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 25.07, "volume": 139734140, "typical_volume": 86296968.1, "trend": 38.29543, "fair_value": 34.0183, "relative_strength": -33.301748, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.912045, "energy": 60.399773, "activity_lines": [ 29.700667, 36.086648, 37.411884, 37.564354 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 31.99, "volume": 148120467, "typical_volume": 92228805.85, "trend": 38.076763, "fair_value": 34.056658, "relative_strength": -18.641197, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.270874, "energy": 59.010873, "activity_lines": [ 29.251334, 34.807808, 36.938394, 37.157552 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }